United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2008
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This article or section contains information about an upcoming or ongoing election in the United States. Content may change as the election approaches. |
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The New Hampshire Senate election will take place on November 4, 2008. John E. Sununu, son of John H. Sununu is the current seat holder but he has yet to announce his candidacy for re-election.
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[edit] Background
New Hampshire has always been considered an oasis of conservatism in the Northeast. Following the 2006 election, however, many statewide offices were taken over by Democrats: Representatives Carol Shea-Porter and Paul Hodes, Governor John Lynch, the majority of the New Hampshire Executive Council (a five-member Lt. Gov.-like board), and the majority of both legislative chambers (which had not occurred since 1911).[1] The popularity of the governor could be a factor in the election to Sununu's detriment, yet such speculation is premature.[2] Also, though the state voted for then-Gov. George W. Bush in 2000, Sen. John Kerry narrowly won the state over Bush in 2004. Additionally, Bush's 2000 victory in New Hampshire (a victory which proved crucial), was due to a number of voters opting for further-left candidate Ralph Nader over Al Gore.
Whether Sununu runs to keep his Senate seat, or chooses to vie for Vice President, Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee chair Charles Schumer has identified New Hampshire as a target in 2008.[3] According to Senator John Ensign of Nevada, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, New Hampshire is one of the top ten most competitive Senate races, the others being Alaska, Colorado, Louisiana, Maine, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Carolina, Oregon and Virginia.[4]
Nevertheless, many new residents of New Hampshire - from Free State Project members to Massachusetts transplants, who tend to be conservative-leaning exiles from the liberal bastion to the south [5] - will keep the state in the wild card category. Sununu, or someone like him, is still a contender against any candidate with opposing views in this state.
[edit] Voters' views of Sununu
A November 2006 SurveyUSA poll of New Hampshire voters found Sununu had a 47% approval rating.[6]. A February 1, 2007 poll conducted by the University of New Hampshire found that only 45% of New Hampshire voters held a favorable opinion of Sununu. In June 2007, a poll by 7NEWS and Suffolk University of likely voters reported that only 31 percent in the poll said Sununu deserved re-election, with 47 percent saying that someone else should get his seat.[7]
Political analyst Chuck Todd has said Sununu is one of the most endangered incumbents, due largely to his continuing support of the President's Iraq policy.[8] Political analyst Larry Sabato, following Jeanne Shaheen's entrance into the race, has listed the race as "Leans Democratic."[9]
[edit] Sununu as candidate for Vice President
Senator John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee for President, has mentioned Sununu as a possible running mate for the 2008 presidential election, as well as Lindsey Graham, Bob Riley, Steve Forbes and John Thune. Sununu has said he will remain neutral in the New Hampshire primary.[10]
If Sununu were to be the Republican nominee for Vice President, he could still run for re-election to the Senate seat as well.[citation needed] The primary for the Senate seat is on September 9, 2008,[11], five days after the 2008 Republican National Convention ends.
[edit] Democratic candidates
Astronaut Jay Buckey MD and former Governor Jeanne Shaheen announced their candidacies early. Shaheen was the Democratic nominee for the race in 2002. Buckey has since withdrawn from the race.
Since 2005, Shaheen had served as director of the Institute of Politics at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government before leaving on September 14, 2007. She had been aggressively courted by Senator Ted Kennedy (D-MA) on behalf of Senate Democrats.
Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand and Katrina Swett, (wife of former Congressman Richard Swett), had announced their candidacies but have since withdrawn in favor of Shaheen upon her entrance into the race.[12]
[edit] Republican Candidates
Former State Representative Tom Alciere
[edit] Polling
[edit] Sununu vs. Shaheen
| Source | Date | Sununu (R) | Shaheen (D) | Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 21, 2008 | 43% | 50% | -- | |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 21, 2008 | 41% | 49% | -- |
| American Research Group | March 20, 2008 | 33% | 47% | 20% |
| Rasmussen Reports | February 13, 2008 | 41% | 49% | -- |
| Granite State Poll | February 11, 2008 | 37% | 54% | 7% |
| American Research Group | December 20, 2007 | 52% | 41% | 7% |
| SurveyUSA | November 5, 2007 | 42% | 53% | 5% |
| WMUR-CNN | September 2007 | 38% | 54% | 7% |
| American Research Group | September 18, 2007 | 41% | 46% | 13% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 16, 2007 | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| WMUR-CNN | July 2007 | 38% | 54% | 7% |
| Research 2000 | July 2007 | 34% | 56% | 10% |
| American Research Group | June 2007 | 29% | 57% | 14% |
| American Research Group | March 29, 2007 | 34% | 44% | 22% |
[edit] References
- ^ Storm of change sweeps through N.H. Legislature
- ^ "Can Sununu Hold on in New Hampshire?", Real Clear Politics, Jul 30 2007. Retrieved on 2007-07-30.
- ^ http://www.nydailynews.com/front/story/486633p-409728c.html
- ^ Kate Phillips, G.O.P. Leader Maps Senate Elections The New York Times, June 13, 2008
- ^ "New Hampshire Blues?", The Wall Street Journal, Oct 27 2007. Retrieved on 2007-11-03.
- ^ Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #11151, conducted November 2006
- ^ Ralph Z. Hallow, "N.H. poll puts Gore over Clinton", Washington Times, June 27, 2007
- ^ Entry 2008 Race Tracker, New Hampshire, accessed June 30, 2007
- ^ Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball, New Hampshire Senate Race, 2008
- ^ BlueHampshire.com Post
- ^ "How to Register to Vote in New Hampshire", State of New Hampshire website, accessed June 30, 2007
- ^ Swett Drops Out Of NH Senate Race WCSH 6 September 21, 2007. Retrieved September 22, 2007
[edit] External links
- Sununu vs Shaheen graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Official campaign websites
- John Sununu, Republican nominee
- Jay Buckey, withdrawn
- Jeanne Shaheen, Democratic nominee
- anti-Sununu website
- anti-Shaheen website
