United States Senate election in Virginia, 2008
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The Virginia Senate election of 2008 will determine who will represent the state of Virginia as its class II member in the United States Senate. The election will be an open contest since the incumbent, John Warner, chose not to seek re-election. The Democratic Party primary election for Senate will be held on June 10, 2008, and the general election will be held on November 4, 2008.
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[edit] Background
John Warner has served Virginia in the Senate since 1979, and had been cagey about whether he would be running for re-election. He would have been favored for a sixth term had he decided to run again, even with recent Democratic gains in the state. In early 2007, speculation and rumors of his possible retirement were raised in the news media, and when Warner reported on April 12, 2007 that he had raised only $500 in campaign contributions during the first quarter, speculation increased that he may not seek a sixth term.[1]
On August 31, 2007, Warner formally announced that he would not be seeking re-election.[2] The race is expected to be competitive with his retirement, given the Democrats' two successive gubernatorial victories (2001, 2005) and the unseating of Republican senator George Allen by Jim Webb in 2006.[3]
[edit] Candidacy announcements
On September 12, 2007, former Governor Mark Warner (no relation to John Warner) announced his candidacy.[3][4] Mark Warner had challenged John Warner for his Senate seat in 1996, but was narrowly defeated. Mark Warner later won election in 2001 as Governor of Virginia, and left office with a high level of popularity in 2006.
On September 16, 2007, Republican 11th District Congressman Tom Davis unofficially announced that he would seek election to the seat.[5] The Washington Times reported that John Warner delayed his retirement announcement specifically to help Davis.[6]
On October 13, the Republican state party's central committee voted 47-37 to hold a statewide convention rather than a primary. Former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore argued strongly for a convention, claiming it would save the candidates money. It reportedly costs $4 million to compete in a primary, while it costs only $1 million for a convention. Davis argued that a primary would expose the candidates to the kind of environment they would face in November. A primary was thought to favor Davis due to his popularity in voter-rich Northern Virginia. In contrast, a convention was thought to favor Gilmore because most of the delegates would come from the party's activist base, which is tilted heavily to the right. With the decision, Gilmore said he was seriously considering entering the race.[7]
Davis officially dropped out of the race on October 25, 2007, citing the potential difficulties of defeating Gilmore in the conservative-dominated GOP convention and in taking on Warner, who is very popular in Davis' own Northern Virginia base.[8] Gilmore confirmed his candidacy on November 19, 2007.[9]
On January 7, 2008 social conservative state Delegate Robert G. "Bob" Marshall (R-Prince William County), a sixteen-year state legislator from Northern Virginia announced he would challenge Gilmore for the Republican nomination May 31, 2008.[10]
On March 29, 2008, the Libertarian Party of Virginia state convention nominated Bill Redpath as its Senate candidate.[11] Redpath cited the importance of running a Libertarian candidate for federal office this election year, considering the fact that the Independent Greens have been fielding candidates so actively in recent years.
On May 31, 2008, the Republican state convention nominated Jim Gilmore with 50.3% of the vote. Gilmore received 65 votes more than Marshall.[12]
[edit] List of candidates
[edit] Democratic
- Mark Warner from Alexandria; former Governor of Virginia (2002-2006). (Official website)
[edit] Also Ran
- Julien Modica from Fairfax County; founder and President of the JMA Foundation.[13][14] Modica failed to meet the filing requirements for the primary ballot. [15] (Official website)
[edit] Republican
- Jim Gilmore from Henrico County; former Governor of Virginia (1998-2002). (Official website)
[edit] Also Ran
- Delegate Robert G. "Bob" Marshall (R-Prince William County) (Official website)
- Veteran Bob Berry from Fairfax County (Temporary Official Website)
[edit] Libertarian
- Bill Redpath from Loudoun County; former gubernatorial candidate (2001) and current national Libertarian Party chair.[16]
[edit] Polling
[edit] General Election
| Source | Date | Gilmore (R) | Warner (D) |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 8, 2008 | 37% | 55% |
| Rasmussen Reports | March 26, 2008 | 39% | 55% |
| Rasmussen Reports | February 19, 2008 | 37% | 57% |
| Rasmussen Reports | January 3, 2008 | 38% | 53% |
| SurveyUSA | November 5, 2007 | 35% | 57% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 24, 2007 | 37% | 53% |
| Washington Post | October 12, 2007 | 31% | 61% |
| Christopher Newport University | October 1, 2007 | 27% | 51% |
| Survey USA | September 17, 2007 | 32% | 60% |
| Rasmussen Reports | September 5, 2007 | 34% | 54% |
[edit] References
- ^ Tim Craig. "Warner's Fundraising Prompts Speculation on Reelection Plans", The Washington Post, April 13, 2007, p. B01.
- ^ "Sen. Warner won’t seek sixth term", Associated Press via MSNBC, August 31, 2007.
- ^ a b Tim Craig and Amy Gardner. "Former Va. Gov. Warner Set to Seek Senate Seat", The Washington Post, September 13, 2007, p. A01.
- ^ Mark Warner Video Announcement
- ^ Bill Turque. "Would-Be Candidate Is Taking His Time", The Washington Post, September 15, 2007, p. B01.
- ^ McLaughlin, Seth. "Mum Warner likely to move on", The Washington Times, June 25, 2007. Retrieved on 2007-06-25.
- ^ Republicans Opt for Convention to Choose Nominee - washingtonpost.com
- ^ Davis Out Of Senate Race, Offers Lukewarm Endorsement To Gilmore, By Josh Kraushaar - CBS News
- ^ Craig, Tim. "Gilmore Enters Senate Race", The Washington Post, November 19, 2007. Retrieved on 2007-11-19.
- ^ Craig, Tim. Marshall to Challenge Gilmore For Republican Nomination. The Washington Post. 2008-01-08.
- ^ LPVA - Libertarian Party of Virginia
- ^ Lewis, Bob. Gilmore wins Va. GOP Senate nomination. WTOP-FM. 2008-05-31. Retrieved 2008-05-31.
- ^ JMA Brain Trauma Recovery & Policy Institute
- ^ YouTube - Julien Modica for US Senate
- ^ [1]
- ^ LPVA - Libertarian Party of Virginia
[edit] External links
- Gilmore vs Warner graph of multiple polls from Pollster.com
- Virginia State Board of Elections
