New Hampshire primary
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It has been suggested that New Hampshire primary, 2008 be merged into this article or section. (Discuss) |
The New Hampshire primary is the first in a series of nationwide political party primary elections held in the United States every four years, as part of the process of choosing the Democratic and Republican nominees for the presidential elections to be held the subsequent November. Held in the small New England state of New Hampshire, it traditionally marks the opening of the quadrennial U.S. presidential election, although that status was threatened in 2007, as both the Republican and Democratic National Committees moved to give more populous states a bigger influence in the presidential race.[1] This is partly because New Hampshire has so little impact, in terms of delegates, when compared to Super Tuesday. Its real impact comes from the media coverage and momentum that a candidate can attain from a decisive or better-than-expected result in the New Hampshire primary. Several states also sought to move up the dates of their 2008 primaries in order to have more influence and dilute the power of the New Hampshire primary.[2]
Originally held in March, its date has been moved up repeatedly to maintain New Hampshire's first-in-the-nation status in the face of ever-earlier primaries in other states. New Hampshire law stipulates that the New Hampshire primary will be the first primary held in the United States, and although the Iowa caucuses are held before the New Hampshire primary, because the Iowa event are caucuses, for the purposes of New Hampshire law it is not counted as a primary. The 2008 primary was held on January 8.
Since 1952, the primary has been a major testing ground for candidates for both the Republican and Democratic nominations. Candidates who do poorly frequently drop out, while lesser-known, underfunded candidates who do well in New Hampshire suddenly become serious contenders, garnering large amounts of media attention and campaign funding.
It is not a closed primary, in which votes can be cast in a party primary only by people registered with that party. Undeclared voters — those not registered with any party — can vote in either party primary.[3] However, it does not meet a common definition of an open primary, because people registered as Republican or Democrat on voting day cannot cast ballots in the primary of the other party.[3]
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[edit] Significance
Since 1977, New Hampshire law has stated that its primary is to be the first in the nation (it had been the first by tradition since 1920).[4] As a result, the state has moved its primary earlier in the year to remain the first. The primary was held on the following dates: 1952-1968, second Tuesday in March; 1972, first Tuesday in March; 1976-1984, fourth Tuesday in February; 1988-1996, third Tuesday in February; 2000, first Tuesday in February (February 1); 2004, fourth Tuesday in January (January 27). The shifts have been to compete with changing primary dates in other states. The primary date for 2008 continued the trend; it was held January 8, the second Tuesday in January.
Before the Iowa caucus first received national attention in the 1970s (Republicans began caucusing in Iowa in 1976), the New Hampshire primary was the first binding indication of which presidential candidate would receive the party nomination. In defense of their primary, voters of New Hampshire have tended to downplay the importance of the Iowa caucus. "The people of Iowa pick corn, the people of New Hampshire pick presidents," said then-Governor John H. Sununu in 1988.[5]
Since then, the primary has been considered an early measurement of the national attitude toward the candidates for nomination. Unlike a caucus, the primary measures the number of votes each candidate received directly, rather than through precinct delegates. The popular vote gives lesser-known candidates a chance to demonstrate their appeal to the electorate at large. Unlike most other states, New Hampshire permits voters that have not declared their party affiliation to vote in a party's primary.
New Hampshire's status as the first in the nation is somewhat controversial among Democrats because the ethnic makeup of the state is not diverse and not representative of the country's voters. This is shown in the 2000 Census data, with the ratio of minority residents being six times smaller than the national average (New Hampshire is 96% non-Hispanic white, versus 75% nationally). Politically however, the state does offer a wide sampling of different types of voters. Although it is a New England state, it is not as liberal as some of its neighbors. For example, according to one exit poll, of those who participated in the 2004 Democratic Primary, 4-in-10 voters were independents, and just over 50% said they considered themselves "liberal." Additionally, as of 2002, 25.6% of New Hampshire residents are registered Democrats and 36.7% are Republicans, with 37.7% of New Hampshire voters registered as "undeclared" independents. Also, New Hampshire was the only state in the Northeast to vote for George Bush in 2000. This plurality of independents is a major reason why New Hampshire is considered a swing state in general U.S. presidential elections.
Recently, media expectations for the New Hampshire primary have come to be almost as important as the results themselves; meeting or beating expectations can provide a candidate with national attention, often leading to an infusion of donations to a campaign that has spent most of its reserves. For example, in 1992, Bill Clinton, although he did not win, did surprisingly well, with his team dubbing him the "Comeback Kid"; the extra media attention helped his campaign's visibility in later primaries.
New Hampshire's political importance as the first in the nation primary state is highlighted in the documentary film Winning New Hampshire. The film focuses on John Kerry's comeback in 2004 and the decisive effect of the New Hampshire Primary on the Presidential selection process.
[edit] History
New Hampshire has held a presidential primary since 1916, but it did not begin to assume its current importance until 1952 after New Hampshire simplified its ballot access laws in 1949 seeking to boost voter turnout, when Dwight Eisenhower demonstrated his broad voter appeal by defeating Robert A. Taft, "Mr. Republican," who had been favored for the nomination, and Estes Kefauver defeated incumbent President Harry S. Truman, leading Truman to abandon his campaign for a third term. The other President to be forced from running for re-election by New Hampshire voters was Lyndon Johnson, who, as a write-in candidate, managed only a 49-42 percent victory over Eugene McCarthy in 1968 (and won fewer delegates than McCarthy), and consequently withdrew from the race.[6]
The winner in New Hampshire has not always gone to win his party's nomination, as demonstrated by Republicans John McCain in 2000 and Pat Buchanan in 1996 and Democrats Estes Kefauver in 1952 and 1956 and Paul Tsongas in 1992.
Before 1992 the person elected president had always carried the primary, but Bill Clinton broke the pattern in 1992, as did George W. Bush in 2000. Neither Clinton nor Bush, however, carried a majority of the popular vote in those general elections. The trend remains that no one has won the presidency with a majority of the popular vote in the general election without first winning his party's New Hampshire primary.
[edit] 1968
The 1968 New Hampshire Democratic Primary was one of the crucial events in the politics of that landmark year in United States history. Senator Eugene McCarthy began his campaign with a poem that he wrote in imitation of the poet Robert Lowell, "Are you running with me Jesus":
- I'm not matching my stride
- With Billy Graham's by the Clyde
- I'm not going for distance
- With the Senator's persistence
- I'm not trying to win a race
- even at George Romney's pace.
- I'm an existential runner,
- Indifferent to space
- I'm running here in place ...
- Are you with me Jesus? [7]
In November 1967, McCarthy declared, "there comes a time when an honorable man simply has to raise the flag" to gauge the country's response and conduct a candidacy for the presidency of the United States by entering the New Hampshire Democratic primary.
On March 12, 1968, McCarthy came within 7 percentage points of defeating President Lyndon Johnson in New Hampshire. Johnson subsequently withdrew from the election with this Shermanesque statement: "I shall not seek, and will not accept, the nomination of my party for another term as your president."
[edit] 2008
[edit] Winners and runners-up
Notes: Winner is listed first. Candidates in bold went on to win their party's nomination.
[edit] Democrats
- 1948: Unpledged delegates
- 1944: Unpledged delegates
- 1940: Unpledged delegates
- 1936: Unpledged delegates
- 1932: Unpledged delegates
- 1928: Unpledged delegates
- 1924: Unpledged delegates
- 1920: Unpledged delegates
- 1916: President T. Woodrow Wilson (unopposed)
[edit] Republicans
| Primary Date | Winner | Runners-Up |
|---|---|---|
| January 8, 2008 | Senator John McCain | Governor Mitt Romney, Governor Mike Huckabee, Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Congressman Ron Paul, Senator Fred Thompson, Congressman Duncan Hunter |
| January 27, 2004 | President George W. Bush | (no serious opposition) |
| February 1, 2000 | Senator John McCain | Governor George W. Bush, Malcolm S. "Steve" Forbes, Jr., Ambassador Alan Keyes, and Gary L. Bauer |
| February 20, 1996 | Pat Buchanan | Senator Bob Dole, Governor A. Lamar Alexander, Steve Forbes, Senator Richard G. "Dick" Lugar, and Ambassador Alan Keyes |
| February 18, 1992 | President George H. W. Bush | Patrick J. "Pat" Buchanan |
| February 16, 1988 | Vice President George H. W. Bush | Senator Bob Dole, Congressman Jack F. Kemp, Jr., Governor Pierre S. "Pete" du Pont IV, and Reverend Marion G. "Pat" Robertson |
| February 28, 1984 | President Ronald Reagan | (no serious opposition) |
| February 26, 1980 | Governor Ronald Reagan | Ambassador George H. W. Bush, Senator Howard H. Baker, Jr., Congressman John B. Anderson, and Congressman Philip M. "Phil" Crane |
| February 24, 1976 | President Gerald R. Ford | Governor Ronald Reagan |
| March 7, 1972 | President Richard Nixon | Congressman Paul N. "Pete" McCloskey, Jr. and Congressman John M. Ashbrook |
| March 12, 1968 | former Vice President Richard M. Nixon | Governor George Romney |
| March 10, 1964 | Ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge, Jr. | Senator Barry M. Goldwater, Governor Nelson A. Rockefeller, and former Vice President Richard Nixon |
| March 8, 1960 | Vice President Richard Nixon | (no serious opposition) |
| March 13, 1956 | President Dwight D. Eisenhower | (no serious opposition) |
| March 11, 1952 | General Dwight D. Eisenhower | Senator Robert Taft and Governor Harold E. Stassen |
| 1948 | Governor Harold Stassen | Governor Thomas E. Dewey |
- 1944: Unpledged delegates
- 1940: Unpledged delegates
- 1936: Unpledged delegates
- 1932: Unpledged delegates
- 1928: Unpledged delegates
- 1924: President John Calvin Coolidge, Jr. (unopposed)
- 1920: General Leonard Wood, Jr. defeated Senator Hiram W. Johnson
- 1916: Unpledged delegates
[edit] 2004 Democratic results
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| John Kerry | 84,377 | 38.4 | 13 |
| Howard Dean | 57,761 | 26.3 | 9 |
| Wesley Clark | 27,314 | 12.4 | 0 |
| John Edwards | 26,487 | 12.1 | 0 |
| Joseph Lieberman | 18,911 | 8.6 | 0 |
| Dennis Kucinich | 3,114 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Richard Gephardt | 419 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Al Sharpton | 347 | 0.2 | 0 |
| George W. Bush | 257 | 0.1 | 0 |
| Other | 1,000 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Total | 219,787 | 100 | 22 (of 27) |
Sources: Union-Leader (Manchester, NH), CNN, New Hampshire Department of State
[edit] 2004 Republican results
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| George W. Bush | 53,962 | 79.55 | 29 |
| All Others | 13,907 | 20.45 | |
| John Kerry | 3,009 | 4.44 | |
| Howard Dean | 1,888 | 2.78 | |
| Wesley Clark | 1,467 | 2.16 | |
| Joseph Lieberman | 941 | 1.39 | |
| John Edwards | 916 | 1.35 | |
| Richard Boza | 841 | 1.24 | |
| John Buchanan | 836 | 1.23 | |
| John Rigazio | 803 | 1.18 | |
| Robert Haines | 579 | 0.85 | |
| Michael Callis | 388 | 0.57 | |
| Blake Ashby | 264 | 0.39 | |
| Millie Howard | 239 | 0.35 | |
| Tom Laughlin | 154 | 0.23 | |
| Bill Wyatt | 153 | 0.23 | |
| Scatter | 1393 | 2.05 | |
| Total | 67,833 | 100 | 29 |
Sources: Concord Monitor, New Hampshire Department of State, [1], [2], [3]
[edit] 2000 Democratic results
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Gore | 76,897 | 50 | 13 |
| Bill Bradley | 70,502 | 46 | 9 |
| John S. McCain (write-in) | 3,320 | 2 | 0 |
| Other | 3,920 | 2 | 0 |
| Total | 154,639 | 100 | 22 (of 27) |
Source: CNN; Official returns at OurCampaigns.com
[edit] 2000 Republican results
| Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates |
|---|---|---|---|
| John McCain | 115,490 | 49 | 9 |
| George W. Bush | 72,262 | 30 | 6 |
| Steve Forbes | 30,197 | 13 | 2 |
| Alan Keyes | 15,196 | 6 | 0 |
| Gary Bauer | 1,656 | 1 | 0 |
| Other | 2,001 | 1 | 0 |
| Total | 236,802 | 100 | 17 |
Source: CNN
[edit] Vice-Presidential results
A much-overlooked Vice-Presidential ballot is also held at the New Hampshire Primary. The following candidates received the greatest number of votes at each election.
| Year | Date | Republican | Democratic | Libertarian |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | January 8 | John Barnes, Jr. [8] | Raymond Stebbins [9] | |
| 2004 | January 27 | Dick Cheney* | John Edwards* | |
| 2000 | February 1 | William Bryk | Wladislav D. Kubiak | |
| 1996 | February 20 | Colin Powell* | Al Gore* | Irwin Schiff* |
| 1992 | February 18 | Herb Clark Jr. | Endicott Peabody | Nancy Lord* |
| 1988 | February 16 | Wayne Green | David Duke | |
| 1984 | February 28 | George Bush* | Gerald Willis | |
| 1980 | February 26 | Jesse A. Helms | Walter Mondale* | |
| 1976 | February 24 | Wallace Johnson | Auburn Lee Packwood | |
| 1972 | March 7 | Spiro Agnew* | Jorge Almeyda* | |
| 1968 | March 12 | Austin Burton | Hubert Humphrey* | |
| 1964 | March 10 | Richard Nixon* | Robert Kennedy* | |
| 1960 | March 8 | Wesley Powell* | Wesley Powell* | |
| 1956 | March 13 | Richard Nixon* | Adlai Stevenson* | |
| 1952 | March 11 | Styles Bridges* | Estes Kefauver* |
* - write-in candidate
Sources: New Hampshire Department of State, New Hampshire Political Library
[edit] See also
- Public Law 62-5
- United States presidential primary
- United States presidential election
- United States presidential election debates
- American presidential debate
- United States presidential nominating convention
- United States Electoral College
Early Votes
- Ames (Iowa) Straw Poll on a Saturday in August prior to the election year, since 1979
- Iowa caucus first official election year event since 1972
Reform Plans
- United States presidential primary reform proposals
- Graduated Random Presidential Primary System
- Delaware Plan
- Rotating Regional Primary System
- Interregional Primary Plan
- National Primary
[edit] References
- Winning New Hampshire, a film on the history and significance of the NH Primary, 2004
- The New Hampshire Political Library
- 2004 primary results (CNN)
- 2000 primary results (CNN)
- http://www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/politics/7812403.htm
- http://www.laweekly.com/ink/04/09/powerlines-meyerson.php
- http://www.nhprimary.com Local coverage of the primary from The Telegraph of Nashua, NH.
- http://www.nhelects.com Local coverage of the primary from The Keene Sentinel of Keene, NH.
- Social Media coverage of the New Hampshire by the Creepy Sleepy podcast
- Radio Row Coverage of the New Hampshire Primary by the Talk Radio News Service and Ellen Ratner
- Germond, Jack. "A Cold, Hard Look", Washingtonian, January 1, 2008. Retrieved on 2008-01-09.
[edit] Notes
- ^ Election 2008: Presidential, Senate and House Races Updated Daily
- ^ Scala 2003
- ^ a b Secretary of State of New Hampshire (undated). How to register to vote in New Hampshire. Election Division, Secretary of State of New Hampshire. Retrieved on 2008-01-14. The term the state of N.H. uses for voters not affiliating with a party is "undeclared" See the section entitled "Political Parties" in the source.
- ^ CQ Politics | A History of U.S. Presidential Primaries: 1912-64
- ^ Corn crack gets Gregg an earful. Retrieved on 2008-01-06.
- ^ NH.gov - New Hampshire Almanac - First-in-the-Nation - Highlights
- ^ Society on the Run: A European View of Life Werner Peters page xi contribution by Senator Eugene McCarthy
- ^ Presidential Primary Election January 8
- ^ Presidential Primary Election January 8
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