United States Senate elections, 2010
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Republican incumbent Retiring Republican Democratic incumbent No election
Elections to the United States Senate will be held on November 2, 2010, with 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate being contested. Since Senators are elected for six-year terms, those elected will serve from January 3, 2011 until January 3, 2017. They will join Senate Class III, which traces its roots back to the Senators who served full six-year terms from March 4, 1789 until March 3, 1795. Current Class III Senators, who were elected in 2004, will seek reelection or retire in 2010. The House elections will occur on the same date, as well as some state and local elections.
The composition of the Senate going into the 2010 election will depend on the results of the 2008 elections. Of the seats up for election, 19 are held by Republicans and 15 by Democrats.
There may be some additional changes of incumbent to the list below if Senators die or resign. If Senators in other classes die or resign in 2009 or 2010, there may be additional special elections in 2010.
[edit] Overview of races
[edit] Retiring Senators
[edit] Sam Brownback (R) of Kansas
Elected in 1996 to the Senate seat once held by Bob Dole and a former candidate for his party's presidential nomination in 2008, incumbent conservative Republican Sam Brownback has stated he will not run in 2010 because of self-imposed term limits. Kansas is one of the most Republican states in the nation, as no Democrat has been elected to serve the Sunflower State since 1938; however, Brownback only has a 50% approval rating. [1] Possible successors to Brownback include Republican congressmen Jerry Moran, Todd Tiahrt, Secretary of State Ron Thornburgh, Insurance Commissioner Sandy Praeger, State Representative Lee Tafanelli, State Senator Derek Schmidt. For the Democrats, Governor Kathleen Sebelius, Railroad Engineer Lee Jones and former Congressman Dan Glickman are probable candidates.
Rating: Solid Republican
[edit] Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) of Texas
Having been the first woman from Texas to serve in the Senate, Sen. Hutchison has announced that she does not plan to run for reelection in 2010. A race to become governor is possible.
Rating: Solid Republican
[edit] Possible retiring Senators
[edit] Bob Bennett (R) of Utah
Former entrepreneur-turned-Republican-Senator Bob Bennett may retire. He will have served three terms in the Senate and will be 77 in 2010. Utah has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1970, when Frank Moss won his third term; he was succeeded in 1976 by Republican Orrin Hatch, who continues to hold the state's other Senate seat.
There are still a handful Democrats who could be strong contenders, including U.S. Representative Jim Matheson, whose popularity in the very Republican 2nd district and experience with difficult campaigns would make him a strong Democratic candidate for the state. Another Democratic possibility would be former Utah Attorney General Jan Graham. Matheson's congressional colleagues, Rob Bishop and Chris Cannon, would be strong contenders for the Republican nomination should Bennett step down. Given the strong Mormon presence in Utah (it has an all-Mormon congressional delegation), it is widely expected that Bennett's successor, regardless of party affiliation, will likewise be Mormon.
Rating: Solid Republican
[edit] Christopher Dodd (D) of Connecticut
First elected in 1980, Christopher Dodd, the longest-serving U.S. Senator in Connecticut history, announced in a letter to the Federal Election Commission on January 17, 2007 that he is no longer a candidate for re-election to the U.S. Senate in 2010. However, this is just a technicality in order to transfer funds to his presidential campaign as the declaration could be reversed at any time. A Dodd spokesman said, "It's a legality that isn't an indication of future plans."[1] Dodd's campaign for the presidency was not successful, so it is possible that he will run for the Senate again. According to Republican Lieutenant Governor Michael Fedele, Republican Governor Jodi Rell is likely running for re-election in 2010, so it is unlikely that either will run for the Senate.[2]
Rating: Solid Democrat
[edit] Chuck Grassley (R) of Iowa
Longtime Republican senator Chuck Grassley was the chair of the Senate Finance Committee until Democrats won control of the Senate in 2006. Grassley, who will be 77 in 2010 and is one of the most powerful members of the Senate, may retire from Congress, having served five terms as a Senator. Iowa is known to be a traditional populist state when it comes to its politics, with issues such as the economy, health care and education considered very important among its constituents. Thus, if Grassley retires, his potential successors are expected to be of a populist nature, whether the candidate is a Republican or a Democrat.
Former Governor Tom Vilsack, who dropped out of the 2008 presidential race, would be a strong contender for the Democrats. Current Lieutenant Governor Patty Judge may also decide to put any potential gubernatorial ambitions for 2014 on hold to run for Grassley's seat in the 2010 midterms. Other potential Democratic candidates include Congressmen Bruce Braley and David Loebsack. For the Republicans, potential candidates would include former Congressman and 2006 Gubernatorial candidate Jim Nussle and Congressmen Steve King and Tom Latham.
Rating: Leans Republican
[edit] Daniel Inouye (D) of Hawaii
Veteran Democrat Daniel Inouye will be 86 in 2010 and will have served eight terms in the Senate and compiled a career in Washington spanning over two generations from Hawaii's first years of statehood to the present day. Even were Inouye to retire, the seat would favor the Democrats, who have traditionally dominated the Hawaii delegation; Hawaii last elected a Republican Senator in 1970, and its delegation currently consists entirely of Democrats. However, although Senator Kerry (D) won the state in 2004, the margin was smaller than in the past. Hawaiians also have elected popular Republican Governor Linda Lingle in two successive elections.
Republican Governor Linda Lingle would easily be the strongest Republican to run for the seat if Inouye retires. Representatives Mazie Hirono and Neil Abercrombie and former Representative Ed Case would all be potential Democratic candidates.
Rating: Likely Democrat
[edit] Patrick Leahy (D) of Vermont
Six-term Vermont Senator Patrick Leahy may retire from the Senate; he will be 70 in 2010. However, as Leahy is now the chairman of the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee, it is unlikely. Former governor and 2004 presidential candidate and current DNC Chairman Howard Dean may seek the seat should Leahy retire, as might Representative Peter Welch, a Democrat, and Governor Jim Douglas, a Republican.
Rating: Safe Democrat
[edit] John McCain (R) of Arizona
On March 5, 2008 McCain won the Republican Nomination.[2] McCain will be 74 in 2010 and has previously struggled with cancer. It is likely that 2008 will be his last chance to become president. Should he fail to do so, he may choose to retire from politics at the end of his current Senate term. Possible Democratic contenders for McCain's open seat include Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano, Attorney General Terry Goddard and 8th District Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords. It is possible that wealthy real estate developer Jim Pederson, who unsuccessfully challenged Sen. Jon Kyl in 2006, may also be interested.
Conservative congressman Jeff Flake is interested in the seat if McCain does not run again. Several other Republican Congressmen are likely to be interested if an open seat presents itself.
It is expected that if his Presidential bid fails, he will run for reelection. However, a poll commissioned by the Behavior Research Center shows Napolitano defeating McCain 47% to 36%. [3]
Rating: Likely Republican
[edit] Barbara Mikulski (D) of Maryland
The dean of women in the United States Senate, Democrat Barbara Mikulski may retire. Mikulski will be 73 in November 2010. Mikulski has often been elected by large margins, which is no surprise given Maryland's traditional Democratic politics. Former Governor Robert Ehrlich, former Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele, who ran for Senate in 2006, and 2004 challenger, E. J. Pipkin, could be among the GOP's candidates, while Democratic Representatives John Sarbanes, Dutch Ruppersberger and Chris Van Hollen; former congressman and NAACP president Kweisi Mfume; and Lt. Gov. Anthony G. Brown could be some of the Democratic candidates for the seat.
Solid Democrat
[edit] Barack Obama (D) of Illinois
One-term Senator Barack Obama is a the presumptive nominee for the Democratic party as a presidential candidate in 2008. If he becomes President or Vice President, his seat will become open and thus result in an all-out primary for both parties. Though Illinois is considered a Democratic stronghold state, Republicans still have some potential candidates, including Representatives Mark Kirk and John Shimkus. Potential Democratic candidates include Attorney General Lisa Madigan; Representatives Jesse Jackson Jr., Bobby Rush; State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias; and Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn.
Rating: Solid Democrat
[edit] Richard Shelby (R) of Alabama
Richard Shelby, a former Democrat who switched parties in 1994 when Republicans took control of both the House and Senate, may retire. He will be 76 in 2010. Although Alabama is a solidly Republican state in presidential elections, Democrats control majorities in the Alabama Legislature and have some high-profile officeholders that would be strong candidates for Shelby's seat should it come up, as it is unlikely any of them will challenge for the seat if Shelby decides to run for a fifth term. However, Rep. Artur Davis (AL-7) is openly considering running against Shelby. He may opt to run in Alabama's open gubernatorial race instead, as Gov. Bob Riley is term limited.
Rating: Likely Republican
[edit] Evan Bayh (D) of Indiana
Evan Bayh, a former two-term Governor of Indiana and now in his second Senate term, was originally considering running for President in 2008, but pulled out in December 2006. He has not yet indicated whether he will seek a third term in 2010, but he is very popular and won reelection with 62% of the vote in 2004. He is also a frequent name on Vice-Presidential short lists, and may be chosen as the party's Vice Presidential nominee in 2008.
Should he retire, possible successors on the Democratic side include Congressman Pete Visclosky, former Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson, and Former Congressman and 9/11 Commission member Tim Roemer.
Potential Republican challengers could be Congressmen Mark E. Souder, Stephen Buyer, and Mike Pence. Former Congressman Mike Sodrel could be a candidate, as well as Governor Mitch Daniels.
Rating: Likely Democrat
[edit] Byron Dorgan (D) of North Dakota
Three term Senator Byron Dorgan may retire. He will be 68 years old in 2010. Dorgan, who represents the conservative state of North Dakota, may be in danger if he runs for reelection. Potential Republican candidates are Governor John Hoeven, Attorney General Wayne Stenehjem, and his brother, State Senate Majority Leader Bob Stenehjem. All have very high approval ratings, including Dorgan.
Rating: Leans Democrat
[edit] Judd Gregg (R) of New Hampshire
Former Governor and incumbent Senator Judd Gregg may retire. Gregg remains popular amongst voters in New Hampshire; however, New Hampshire was the site of Democratic gains in 2006. Democrats now control both legislative chambers in the state for the first time since 1911 and took both the state's Congressional districts. Governor John Lynch was reelected with 74% of the vote in 2006, and would thus likely be a strong challenger for Gregg. If Lynch passes on this race, other potential candidates are current U.S. Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter or former Portsmouth Mayor Steve Marchand.
Rating: Leans Republican
[edit] David Vitter (R) of Louisiana
David Vitter, Republican of Louisiana, was elected to the US Senate in 2004 over Rep. Chris John (D) due to Louisiana's strengthening Republican nature in federal elections. He may retire due to a a scandal involving a Washington D.C escort service. If Vitter runs again, it is unlikely he will face a difficult challenge, though Rep. Charlie Melancon (LA-3), State Representatives Mike Powell and Michael Jackson, State Senators Lydia Jackson, Ben Nevers and Walter Boasso, former Shreveport Mayor Keith Hightower, 2004 Senate candidate Chris John, Frequent Candidate Vinny Mendoza, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin, 2006 congressional candidate Mike Stagg, Attorney Willie Banks Jr.,former Agriculture Commissioner Bob Odom, former Gubernatorial Chief of Staff Andy Kopplin, Attorney General-Elect James Caldwell, Caddo Parish District Attorney Paul Carmouche, Attorney John Milkovich, former Attorneys General Richard Ieyoub, Charles C. Foti Jr, Construction worker Joe Delatte or Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu could give him a race. If Vitter retires, potential candidates include Congressmen Charles Boustany and Rodney Alexander, Insurance Commissioner Jim Donelon, Slidell Mayor Ben Morris, State Representatives Hunter Greene and Tim Burns, State Senators Jim Lentini, Julie Quinn and Tom Schedler, Senatorial Chief of Staff Kyle Ruckert, St. Tammany President Kevin Davis, Attorneys Eric Skrmetta and David Simpson, Jefferson Parish Councilman John Young Jr.,Agriculture Commissioner Mike Strain, Governor Bobby Jindal and Secretary of State Jay Dardenne.
Rating: Likely Republican
[edit] John Thune (R) of South Dakota
John Thune barely defeated Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle in 2004, and he may face a strong challenge in 2010. Representative Stephanie Herseth Sandlin is a possible Democratic contender.
Thune has been mentioned as a candidate for Governor of South Dakota in 2010, or as a running mate for John McCain in 2008[4]. Should he run for governor, he will be unable to seek reelection, and will retire from the Senate when his term ends in 2011. Should he become Vice-president, he will have to resign on or before Inauguration Day in 2009, and his appointed replacement will face reelection in 2010.
Rating: Solid Republican
[edit] Democratic Incumbent Races
[edit] Blanche Lincoln (D) of Arkansas
Incumbent Senator Blanche Lincoln was reelected with 56% of the vote in 2004, a year when President George W. Bush carried the state easily and GOP candidates nationwide won in what was termed as a GOP year. Lincoln is extremely popular in Arkansas and is very well known. Former Gov. Mike Huckabee, who was a 2008 Presidential candidate, may run, since he remains a relatively well-liked figure. Regardless of Huckabee's position, Arkansas has elected only one Republican Senator since Reconstruction, who was defeated in a GOP landslide year of 2002.
Rating: Solid Democrat
[edit] Barbara Boxer (D) of California
The chairwoman of the Environment and Public Works Committee, California Democrat Barbara Boxer announced on February 19, 2007, that she will seek a fourth term in 2010.[5] Boxer will turn 70 one week after election night in 2010. She is one of the most liberal members of the U.S. Senate, and is the first Democratic senator to officially announce plans for the 2010 race. It is unlikely that she will face any major opposition in the Democratic primary. Because of her liberal position, she may face an actual challenge from the Republicans.
Moderate Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger may seek the seat, as he would be ineligible to run again in the Gubernatorial race due to term limits. David Dreier, the ranking member of the House Rules Committee, could also seek the seat for Republicans, as could Rep. Darrell Issa. However, most members of the California GOP House delegation are regarded as too conservative for the state as a whole.
It remains to be seen whether conservative State Senator Tom McClintock will consider a run for the seat, as he is experienced in statewide contests (including a third-place finish in the 2003 California gubernatorial recall election). Currently, McClintock is running for Congress.
Rating: Likely Democrat
[edit] Harry Reid (D) of Nevada
Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will seek a fifth term. In 2004, he was reelected with 61% of the vote. That year, Republicans did not put up a formidable challenger. Potential Republican candidates include former Governor Kenny Guinn, Governor Jim Gibbons (although he has only a 40% approval rating), Representatives Jon Porter and Dean Heller, or 2004 candidate Richard Ziser. Guinn might be the strongest challenger to Reid but will be 74 in 2010, three years Reid's senior. Porter is the more likely to run as he has been interested since 2004 and been planning a run.
Reid may be the least popular incumbent in the 2010 cycle. Since becoming Minority Leader (in 2004), his approval ratings have dropped into the under 50 territory. A November 2007 poll showed Reid's approval at 39%, with 49% disapproving. [3]
Rating: Likely Democrat
[edit] Ken Salazar (D) of Colorado
Ken Salazar narrowly defeated Pete Coors in 2004. Colorado has experienced a shift in politics, with the Democratic Party making significant gains throughout the state in 2006. There has been talk by activists on the left of launching a primary challenge to the centrist Salazar. Republican Former Governor Bill Owens, who won't run in 2008 for the Senate, may run this time around, as might retired football quarterback, Republican John Elway, who hinted at a future run for office despite choosing not to run in 2008. Other possibilities would be former Republican Presidential Candidate and sitting Congressman Tom Tancredo, Secretary of State Mike Coffman and former Lieutenant Governor Jane Norton.
Rating: Likely Democrat
[edit] Chuck Schumer (D) of New York
Chuck Schumer, current chairman of the DSCC, will seek a third term. In 2004, he handily defeated Assemblyman Howard Mills, 71-24%. New York is considered a Democratic stronghold. However, there are a few Republicans who could challenge Schumer, including former governor George Pataki and former New York City mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani.
Rating: Solid Democrat
[edit] Ron Wyden (D) of Oregon
Ron Wyden is expected to win reelection easily in Oregon, a state whose congressional delegation has a 4-1 Democratic majority despite the state splitting its Presidential votes almost 50/50 in 2000 and 2004.
Rating: Solid Democrat
[edit] Patty Murray (D) of Washington
Patty Murray defeated Rep. George Nethercutt by 10 percent in 2004. She may face a credible challenge in 2010 from Nethercutt's successor, Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-5). As the Seattle area has grown, no Washington Senator has come from the eastern part of the state since 1934. Other Republican candidates may include Rep. Dave Reichert (WA-8), who has been able to win in a Democratic-leaning district in the suburbs of Seattle, or Washington Attorney General Rob McKenna.
Rating: Likely Democrat
[edit] Russ Feingold (D) of Wisconsin
In 2004, Russ Feingold won a third term by double-digits, outperforming the Democratic nominee for President substantially. Despite this, he won narrowly in both of his previous elections in Democratic years. A potential GOP candidate could be the 2006 Governor candidate, former Rep. Mark Green, the current U.S Ambassador to Tanzania, Congressmen Paul Ryan and Jim Sensenbrenner. By far the strongest Republican candidate would be incredibly popular former Governor and former 2008 Presidential candidate Tommy Thompson.
Rating: Solid Democrat
[edit] Republican Incumbent Races
[edit] Lisa Murkowski (R) of Alaska
Lisa Murkowski only narrowly defeated former Governor Tony Knowles in 2004, in an election that included charges ofnepotism, as Murkowski was appointed by her father, Governor Frank Murkowski. Alaska trends Republican. Knowles, one of the state's strongest Democrats, has been defeated two statewide elections in a row.
Due to her father's record and the nepotism charge, Murkowski's greatest challenge will probably come from the reform wing of the Republican Party of Alaska. Possible Republican primary challengers include Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell and State Representative Gabrielle Ledoux (who are both running for Alaska's At-large congressional district in the Republican primary against incumbent Republican Don Young), or current Governor Sarah Palin (who has been mentioned as a possible vice presidential pick for John McCain in the 2008 presidental election). [4]
Palin considered running against Murkowski in the 2004 Republican Primary, but did not at the request of her oldest son, Track.
Rating: Solid Republican
[edit] Mel Martinez (R) of Florida
Mel Martinez was elected in a very close contest against Democrat Betty Castor in 2004. Martinez, a former Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the Bush administration and chairman of the RNC for the 2007–2008 election cycle, may be vulnerable in 2010 to a strong challenger.
Potential Democratic challengers include U.S. Rep. Kathy Castor (FL-11), the daughter of Martinez's 2004 opponent, Chief Financial Officer of Florida Alex Sink, unsuccessful 2006 gubernatorial candidate and former Rep. Jim Davis (FL-11), and Representatives Allen Boyd (FL-2), Kendrick Meek (FL-17), Robert Wexler (FL-19), Debbie Wasserman Schultz (FL-20), and Ron Klein (FL-22). Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio is said to be very interested in running and is touting Jim Davis as a candidate for Mayor of Tampa in order to steer him away from the Senate race. State Senator Dave Aronberg could also run. State House Democratic Leader Dan Gelber is also said to be mulling a run against Martinez after leading the state party to their best year in legislative elections in decades.
Another intriguing possibility is Democrat Tim Mahoney (FL-16) who defeated Mark Foley in 2006 after revelations about inappropriate relations between Foley and his staff unsurfaced. If he is reelected in 2008, he will have proven his ability to win in an overwhelmingly Republican House district, which would make him a strong potential candidate in a statewide run, probably the strongest after Sink.
Rating: Likely Republican
[edit] Johnny Isakson (R) of Georgia
There had been some speculation that freshman Republican senator Johnny Isakson might run for Governor of Georgia to succeed Republican Sonny Perdue, who is term-limited. Isakson is a popular senator whose first bid for the Senate (in 1996 to succeed retiring Democrat Sam Nunn) ended with a defeat in the Republican primary after Isakson listed himself as the pro-choice primary candidate, which is considered taboo as Georgia Republicans are overwhelmingly pro-life. Isakson has a 52% approval rating, with 36% disapproval. [5].
On May 8, 2008, Isakson announced that he would not run for governor and instead would run for reelection to the Senate. [6]
Possible Democratic candidates include Congressmen Jim Marshall and John Barrow, both of whom represent vulnerable districts. Other possibilities are former Secretary of State Cathy Cox; Labor Commissioner Michael Thurmond; State Senators Steve Henson, Doug Stoner, and J.B. Powell; Attorney General Thurbert Baker; Georgia House Minority Leader DuBose Porter; and wealthy Columbus trial attorney Jim Butler.
[edit] Mike Crapo (R) of Idaho
Mike Crapo faced only token write-in opposition in 2004 after Idaho Democrats failed to produce a candidate before the filing deadline. Although the Idaho Falls attorney will be 59 in 2010, Crapo had bouts with prostate cancer in 1999 and again in 2005, which may make his health a potential factor in a reelection decision. Crapo is unlikely to face serious opposition from either party should he run for a third term.
[edit] Jim Bunning (R) of Kentucky
Kentucky Republican and Baseball Hall of Famer Jim Bunning is one of the most unpopular Senators in the country and is expected to face a difficult reelection. Bunning announced on December 11, 2007 to the Kentucky Post that he will seek a third term.[7] Bunning will be 79 in 2010, and has become notorious for his erratic behavior, including using a teleprompter in a television debate during his 2004 race against his lesser-known opponent, Daniel Mongiardo, among other gaffes, which led to Bunning's near-defeat.
The most popular elected Democrat in Kentucky is current U.S. Representative and former Kentucky Attorney General Ben Chandler, who would be a formidable candidate should he challenge Bunning. The main reasons for this is that Chandler is highly popular in his strongly Republican district, has very high name recognition (due to the fact that he hails from the Chandler political dynasty and his multiple statewide campaigns) and his previous statewide victories (though he was defeated in a race for Governor in 2003). Other contenders for the Democrats include popular former Governor Brereton Jones, Representative John Yarmuth, former Representative Ken Lucas, Attorney General Greg Stumbo, State Treasurer Jonathan Miller, former Lieutenant Governor Steve Henry, Speaker of the House Jody Richards, State Auditor Crit Luallen, Louisville Mayor Jerry Abramson, and Mongiardo who is currently Lieutenant Governor of Kentucky.
[edit] Richard Burr (R) of North Carolina
Richard Burr was elected in 2004 with 52% of the vote over former White House Chief of Staff Erskine Bowles. Since then, he has consistently registered low approval ratings in his home state, which was carried with 56% of the vote by George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004. However, Democrats dominate state-level elections, controlling the Governorship, a majority of the U.S. House delegation, and both houses of the state legislature.
Some Democrats in North Carolina could pose a strong challenge to Burr. The strongest candidate would be popular Governor Mike Easley, who will be out of office by that point. Other statewide winners include state Attorney General Roy Cooper and former U.S. Senator John Edwards, who would be reclaiming his old seat. Other Democrats who might run include Rep. and former NFL quarterback Heath Shuler; congressional candidate Larry Kissell, who would become an even more viable candidate should he be elected to Congress in 2008; Secretary of State Elaine Marshall; State Representative Grier Martin; Representatives Mike McIntyre, G.K. Butterfield, Mel Watt, David Price, Brad Miller and Bob Etheridge; and state Senator Kay Hagan.
[edit] George Voinovich (R) of Ohio
Moderate Republican, former Cleveland mayor, and former Governor George Voinovich has indicated that he will seek a third term [8]. Voinovich won both of his prior elections by comfortable margins, but the Democrats made several gains in 2006 with Ted Strickland's election as Governor and Sherrod Brown's unseating of Sen. Mike DeWine. His party is currently struggling to rebuild its image following the infamous Coingate scandal and the fallout from the unpopularity of former Ohio Governor Bob Taft. Additionally, a November 2007 Survey USA poll has his approval rating at 44%, with 46% disapproving.
Possible Democrats who might run include State Treasurer Richard Cordray, former Congressional candidate Paul Hackett, and Representatives Tim Ryan, Dennis Kucinich, Betty Sutton, Charlie Wilson and Zack Space.
[edit] Tom Coburn (R) of Oklahoma
Tom Coburn was elected in 2004 by a 53%-42% margin, running well behind President Bush's 66% showing. He may face a challenge in 2010. The Democrats have several strong candidates to challenge in Oklahoma, including Governor Brad Henry, Congressman Dan Boren, and state Attorney General Drew Edmondson.
[edit] Arlen Specter (R) of Pennsylvania
Longtime moderate Republican Arlen Specter will be 80 in 2010. He announced on March 19, 2007 that he will seek a sixth term in 2010. Specter expects to start off his campaign on April 4, 2007, with a big fundraiser in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. The five-term Pennsylvanian, following the 2006 elections, lost his chairmanship of the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee. In 2005, Specter underwent chemotherapy for Hodgkin's lymphoma, one year after a hotly contested race pitting him against Representatives Pat Toomey (R) and Joe Hoeffel (D) in the primary and general elections, respectively.
There is a slight possibility that Specter will face an primary challenge as he did in 2004 from Rep. Pat Toomey, but no Republicans have made their intention known. He defeated his Democratic opponent, Joe Hoeffel, 53%-42% in the general election in 2004. Representative Allyson Schwartz might run; she has been noted for raising vasts amount of money in short time periods. Congressmen Patrick Murphy, Joe Sestak, Tim Holden, Jason Altmire, Bob Brady, Chaka Fattah, Chris Carney, Democratic MSNBC commentator and Hardball host Chris Matthews, and Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter would all be Democratic possibilities for Specter's seat.
Governor Ed Rendell ruled out a run when he announced that his reelection campaign in 2006 would be the last one of his career.
[edit] Jim DeMint (R) of South Carolina
Jim DeMint was elected in 2004 with 54 percent of the vote, defeating Democrat Inez Tenenbaum. In 2010 he is unlikely to face a serious challenge, as there are only one or two Democrats left in South Carolina who could give him a race. These are State Education Superintendent Jim Rex, the only Democrat who currently holds statewide elected office in the Palmetto State, and Joe Erwin, the wealthy and charismatic state Democratic Party chairman.
[edit] Kit Bond (R) of Missouri
Four-term Republican Kit Bond has announced he will seek reelection. Bond, who will be 71 in 2010, has usually attracted a Democratic challenger holding statewide office, as was the case in 2004 with then-State Treasurer Nancy Farmer. Missouri is a swing state that reelected Bond and gave its electoral votes to George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, but Democrat Claire McCaskill won Missouri's other Senate seat in 2006 in a close victory over incumbent Jim Talent.
State Attorney General Jay Nixon, who has won reelection to his position several times, could run for the Democratic nomination, though this is unlikely as he is the Democrat nominee running for state Governor in 2008. Former Governor Roger Wilson recently stepped down as chairman of the state Democratic Party, fueling speculation that he may run for Bond's seat. Likelier Democratic possibilities include Secretary of State Robin Carnahan or her brother U.S. Rep Russ Carnahan, both the children of former Missouri State Senators Mel Carnahan (who won the post posthumously in 2000 after a plan crash killed he and one of his sons) and his wife who filled out his term, Jean Carnahan. There is also a possibility that St. Louis County Commissioner, Charlie Dooley may run.
The Columbia Daily Tribune has reported that 2006 MO-9 Congressional Candidate Duane Burghard is being recruited by Democratic Party leaders as a possible 2010 Challenger to Bond's seat.
[edit] Senate contests in 2010
| State | Incumbent | Party | Status | Possible opposing candidates | 2004 Election Results[6] |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | Richard Shelby | Republican | Richard Shelby (R) 68%; Wayne Sowell (D) 32% | ||
| Alaska | Lisa Murkowski | Republican | Lisa Murkowski (R) 49%; Tony Knowles (D) 46%; Other 5% | ||
| Arizona | John McCain | Republican | John McCain (R) 77%; Stuart Starky (D) 21%; Other 3% | ||
| Arkansas | Blanche Lincoln | Democrat | Running for reelection | Blanche Lincoln (D) 56%; Jim Holt (R) 44% | |
| California | Barbara Boxer | Democrat | Running for reelection[7] | Barbara Boxer (D) 58%; Bill Jones (R) 38%; Other 4% | |
| Colorado | Ken Salazar | Democrat | Running for reelection | Ken Salazar (D) 51%; Pete Coors (R) 47%; Other 2% | |
| Connecticut | Chris Dodd | Democrat | Chris Dodd (D) 66%; Jack Orchulli (R) 32%; Other 2% | ||
| Florida | Mel Martinez | Republican | Mel Martinez (R) 50% Betty Castor (D) 48%; Other 2% | ||
| Georgia | Johnny Isakson | Republican | Running for reelection[8] | Johnny Isakson (R) 58%; Denise Majette (D) 40%; Other 2% | |
| Hawaii | Daniel Inouye | Democrat | Daniel Inouye (D) 76%; Campbell Cavasso (R) 21%; Other 3% | ||
| Idaho | Mike Crapo | Republican | Mike Crapo (R) 99%; Other 1% | ||
| Illinois | Barack Obama | Democrat | Barack Obama (D) 70%; Alan Keyes (R) 27%; Other 3% | ||
| Indiana | Evan Bayh | Democrat | Evan Bayh (D) 62%; Marvin Scott (R) 37%; Other 1% | ||
| Iowa | Chuck Grassley | Republican | Chuck Grassley (R) 70% Arthur Small 28%; Other 2% | ||
| Kansas | Sam Brownback | Republican | Retiring[9] | Sam Brownback (R) 69%; Lee Jones (D) 28%; Other 3% | |
| Kentucky | Jim Bunning | Republican | Running for reelection[10] | Jim Bunning (R) 51%; Daniel Mongiardo (D) 49% | |
| Louisiana | David Vitter | Republican | Running for reelection | David Vitter (R) 51%; Chris John (D) 29%; John Kennedy (D)15%; Other 5% | |
| Maryland | Barbara Mikulski | Democrat | Barbara Mikulski (D) 65%; E. J. Pipkin (R) 34%; Other 1% | ||
| Missouri | Kit Bond | Republican | Running for reelection | Robin Carnahan (D), Russ Carnahan (D), Roger Wilson (D) | Kit Bond (R) 56%; Nancy Farmer (D) 43%; Other 1% |
| Nevada | Harry Reid | Democrat | Running for reelection[11] | Harry Reid (D) 61%; Richard Ziser (R) 35%; Other 4% | |
| New Hampshire | Judd Gregg | Republican | Judd Gregg (R) 66%; Doris Haddock (D) 34% | ||
| New York | Chuck Schumer | Democrat | Running for reelection | Chuck Schumer (D) 71%; Howard Mills (R) 24%; Other 5% | |
| North Carolina | Richard Burr | Republican | Richard Burr (R) 52%; Erskine Bowles (D) 47%; Other 1% | ||
| North Dakota | Byron Dorgan | Democrat | Running for reelection | Byron Dorgan (D) 68%; Mike Liffrig (R) 32% | |
| Ohio | George Voinovich | Republican | Running for reelection | George Voinovich (R) 64%; Eric Fingerhut (D) 36% | |
| Oklahoma | Tom Coburn | Republican | Tom Coburn (R) 53%; Brad Carson (D) 41%; Sheila Bilyeu (Independent) 6% | ||
| Oregon | Ron Wyden | Democrat | Ron Wyden (D) 63%; Al King (R) 32%; Other 5% | ||
| Pennsylvania | Arlen Specter | Republican | Running for reelection | Arlen Specter (R) 53%; Joe Hoeffel (D) 42%; Other 5% | |
| South Carolina | Jim DeMint | Republican | Jim DeMint (R) 54%; Inez Tenenbaum (D) 44%; Other 2% | ||
| South Dakota | John Thune | Republican | Tom Daschle (D) 49%; John Thune (R) 51% | ||
| Utah | Robert Bennett | Republican | Robert Bennett (R) 69%; Paul Van Dam (D) 28%; Other 3% | ||
| Vermont | Patrick Leahy | Democrat | Patrick Leahy (D) 71%; Jack McMullen (R) 25%; Other 4% | ||
| Washington | Patty Murray | Democrat | Running for reelection | Patty Murray (D) 55%; George Nethercutt (R) 43%; Other 2% | |
| Wisconsin | Russ Feingold | Democrat | Running for reelection | Russ Feingold (D) 56%; Tim Michels (R) 44% |
[edit] References
- ^ "Dodd: About His "Retirement" Announcement", The Hotline, National Journal, 2007-02-20. Retrieved on 2007-03-07.
- ^ "Rell likely to seek re-election, lieutenant governor says", Journal Inquirer, 2008-04-12. Retrieved on 2008-04-27.
- ^ http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/95569
- ^ The Grooming of John Thune : tdaxp
- ^ Associated Press. "Barbara Boxer Running for Re-election in 2010", NewsMax.com, 2007-02-20. Retrieved on 2007-02-21.
- ^ 2004 Official Election Results for United States Senate (PDF). Federal Election Commission. Retrieved on 2007-02-19.
- ^ Boxer, Barbara (2007-05-10). I'm running for re-election.
- ^ Isakson says he won’t run for governor, will seek re-election to U.S. Senate (2008-12-04).
- ^ Sidoti, Liz. "Brownback to Move on Presidential Bid", ABC News, 2007-01-06, p. 2. Retrieved on 2007-02-19.
- ^ Ellis, Ronnie (2007-12-04). Bunning says - again - he will run again in 2010.
- ^ Bresnahan, John (2007-10-25). Reid readies for reelection.
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