Conservative targets for next UK election

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The following list shows the parliamentary seats which the Conservative Party would need to gain at the next UK General Election in order to win an overall majority in the House of Commons, at Westminster if there were the same swing in every constituency. The figures have been compiled using the Media Guide to the new Parliamentary constituencies (ISBN 0948858 45 1) published by the University of Plymouth's Election Centre in association with the BBC, ITN, the Press Association and Sky News. These figures will be the ones used on Election Night.

Key Seat: The seat that marks the dividing line between each table
Three / Four Way Marginal: A seat where all of the major parties contesting the seat are less than 20% apart

Conservative Benchmarks
If the Conservatives win only the seats between Gillingham and Rainham and Dorset South, Gordon Brown will remain Prime Minister.
If the Conservatives win only the seats between Gillingham and Rainham and Hammersmith, Gordon Brown will be the leader of the largest party in a hung Parliament.
If the Conservatives win only the seats between Gillingham and Rainham and Cleveleys and Ipswich, David Cameron will be the leader of the largest party in a hung Parliament.
If the Conservatives win all the seats on the list, David Cameron will become Prime Ministe.r
NB: The contituency of Sittingbourne and Sheppey has been omitted from this table through an oversight. It stands as the third most marginal constituency in the list, the current Labour MP (Derek Wyatt) had only a majority of 79 in the 2005 election.

Rank Constituency Winning party Swing needed
1 Gillingham and Rainham Labour 0.02
2 Crawley Labour 0.04
3 York Outer Liberal Democrat 0.22
4 Romsey and Southampton North Liberal Democrat 0.23
5 Harlow Labour 0.29
6 Cheltenham Liberal Democrat 0.33
7 Croydon Central Labour 0.36
8 Portsmouth North Labour 0.38
9 Battersea Labour 0.41
10 Hove Labour 0.50
11 Somerton and Frome Liberal Democrat 0.56
12 Eastleigh Liberal Democrat 0.56
13 Westmorland and Lonsdale Liberal Democrat 0.85
14 Milton Keynes North Labour 0.86
15 Stroud Labour 0.93
16 Dartford Labour 0.95
17 Basildon South and Thurrock East Labour 1.07
18 Ealing Central and Acton Labour 1.08
19 City of Chester Labour 1.10
20 Hereford and Herefordshire South Liberal Democrat 1.19
21 Colne Valley Labour 1.26
22 Cardiff North Labour 1.26
23 Hastings and Rye Labour 1.27
24 Calder Valley Labour 1.37
25 Stourbridge Labour 1.46
26 Carshalton and Wallington Liberal Democrat 1.47
27 Milton Keynes South Labour 1.52
28 Corby Labour 1.56
29 Taunton Deane Liberal Democrat 1.65
30 Perth and Perthshire North Scottish National Party 1.66
31 Vale of Glamorgan Labour 1.68
32 Swindon South Labour 1.75
33 Dorset South Labour 1.86
34 Northampton South Labour 1.89
35 High Peak Labour 1.90
36 Loughborough Labour 1.94
37 Aberconwy Labour 1.96
38 Watford Labour 1.97
39 Birmingham, Edgabaston Labour 2.00
40 Stafford Labour 2.00
41 Angus Scottish National Party 2.10
42 Broxtowe Labour 2.22
43 Chippenham Liberal Democrat 2.35
44 Burton Labour 2.40
45 Brighton, Kemptown Labour 2.42
46 Bury North Labour 2.52
47 Redditch Labour 2.60
48 Rugby Labour 2.60
49 Pendle Labour 2.65
50 Wolverhampton South West Labour 2.66
51 Carmarthenshire West and Pembrokeshire South Labour 2.66
52 Ribble South Labour 2.71
53 Derbyshire South Labour 2.73
54 Bristol North West Labour 2.85
55 Dumfries and Galloway Labour 2.87
56 Tamworth Labour 2.94
57 Torbay Liberal Democrat 3.01
58 Cleethorpes Labour 3.03
59 Sutton and Cheam Liberal Democrat 3.11
60 Swindon North Labour 3.12
61 Westminster North Labour 3.30
62 Worcester Labour 3.39%
63 Cornwall North Liberal Democrat 3.43
64 Harrow East Labour 3.44
65 Richmond Park Liberal Democrat 3.55
66 Great Yarmouth Labour 3.69
67 Cheadle Liberal Democrat 3.70
68 Eltham Labour 3.80
69 Brigg and Goole Labour 3.92
70 Portsmouth South Liberal Democrat 4.00
71 Bedford Labour 4.02
72 Stevenage Labour 4.03
73 Hendon Labour 4.03
74 Chatham and Aylesford Labour 4.13
75 Brentford and Isleworth Labour 4.14
76 Bradford West Labour 4.17
77 Rossendale and Darwen Labour 4.18
78 Hammersmith Labour 4.22
79 Blackpool North and Cleveleys Labour 4.24
80 Halifax Labour 4.38
81 Lancaster and Fleetwood Labour 4.41
82 Dewsbury Labour 4.44
83 Dudley South Labour 4.45
84 Northampton North Labour 4.50
85 Edinburgh South Labour 4.56
86 Warrington South Labour 4.58
87 Truro and Falmouth Liberal Democrat 4.63
88 Wirral South Labour 4.65
89 Southport Liberal Democrat 4.66
90 Lincoln Labour 4.74
91 Leicestershire North West Labour 4.75
92 Wyre Forest Health Concern 4.76
93 Gedling Labour 4.82
94 Halesowen and Rowley Regis Labour 4.83
95 Nuneaton Labour 4.87
96 Ochil and Perthshire South Labour 4.95
97 Leeds North West Liberal Democrat 5.02
98 Brecon and Radnorshire Liberal Democrat 5.09
99 Camborne and Redruth Liberal Democrat 5.13
100 Warwick and Leamington Labour 5.17
101 Dover Labour 5.20
102 Keighley Labour 5.24
103 Newton Abbot Liberal Democrat 5.25
104 Devon North Liberal Democrat 5.35
105 Poplar and Limehouse Labour 5.42
106 Stirling Labour 5.46
107 Plymouth, Sutton and Devonport Labour 5.56
108 Dudley North Labour 5.57
109 Elmet and Rothwell Labour 5.71
110 Reading West Labour 5.74
111 Tynemouth Labour 5.83
112 Morecambe and Lunesdale Labour 5.87
113 Pudsey Labour 5.87
114 Cornwall South East Liberal Democrat 5.89
115 Ipswich Labour 5.91
116 Bolton West Labour 5.98