Neo-Malthusianism

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Neo-malthusianism is a set of doctrines derived from Thomas Malthus's theory that limited resources keep populations in check and reduce economic growth. A current proponent of Neo-Malthusianism is the Club of Rome. Scholars[who?] working with the original Malthus Theory included the advocated use of contraception to the theory which formed the basic views of Neo-Malthusianism. In their book, Limits to Growth, they used innovative computer modeling to predict a crisis of resources, food per capita, and general resources in the mid 21st century. After a period of time, world populations would no longer be able to sustain themselves and also plummet.

Malthus believed population growth was exponential (2->4->8->16), and agricultural growth was arithmetic (1->2->3->4); therefore, population growth will increase at such a rate that eventually there won't be enough food for the subsistence of the population. This appears to describe rather accurately sociodemographic dynamics of complex pre-industrial societies and serves as a basis for modern mathematical models of long-term historical dynamics (see, e.g., Peter Turchin 2003; Peter Turchin et al. 2007; Korotayev et al. 2006). Critics often cite the substitution principle–people will find alternatives to resources which have been exhausted, using them instead or adopt new techniques to improve, for example, crop yield per area of land cultivated. Neo-malthusianists would counter-claim that these people put too much reliance on technology to solve all of humanity's future woes, which leads to unsustainable and irresponsible behaviours in the present. The "we'll address it when it becomes a problem" mentality leads to undue procrastination and a general avoidance of problems, if not willful ignorance. One possible solution to the questions posed by a neo-malthusian model is sustainability.

In short, Neo-Malthusianism is applying Thomas Malthus's theories of carrying capacity of a system to the contemporary world economic system, and examining the implications of such a model.


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