Bandwagon effect

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The bandwagon effect, also known as social proof or "cromo effect" and closely related to opportunism, is the observation that people often do and believe things because many other people do and believe the same things. The effect is often pejoratively called herding instinct, particularly when applied to adolescents. People tend to follow the crowd without examining the merits of a particular thing. The bandwagon effect is the reason for the bandwagon fallacy's success.

The bandwagon effect is well-documented in behavioral psychology and has many applications. The general rule is that conduct or beliefs spread among people, as fads clearly do, with "the probability of any individual adopting it increasing with the proportion who have already done so." [1] As more people come to believe in something, others also hop on the bandwagon regardless of the underlying evidence.

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[edit] Origin of the Phrase

Literally, a bandwagon is a wagon which carries the band in a parade, circus or other entertainment.[2] The phrase "jump on the bandwagon" was first used in American politics in 1848 because of Dan Rice, President Lincoln's court jester.[3] Dan Rice, a professional circus clown, used his bandwagon for Zachary Taylor's campaign appearances, to gain attention by using the music. As Taylor's campaign became more successful, more politicians strove for a seat on the bandwagon, hoping to be associated with the success. Later, during the time of William Jennings Bryan's 1900 presidential campaign, bandwagons had become standard in campaigns,[4] and 'jump on the bandwagon' was used as a derogatory term, implying that people were associating themselves with the success without considering what they associated themselves with.

[edit] Use in Politics

The bandwagon effect occurs in voting: some people vote for those candidates or parties who are likely to succeed (or are proclaimed as such by the media), hoping to be on the 'winner's side' in the end.[5] The bandwagon effect has been labeled to situations involving majority opinion, such as political outcomes, where people alter their opinions to the majority view (McAllister and Studlar 721).

Because of time zones, election results are broadcast in the eastern parts of the United States while polls are still open in the west. Due to this trend, behavior of voters in western United States has been previously investigated. In 1980, NBC News declared Ronald Reagan to be the winner of the presidential race on the basis of the exit polls several hours before the voting booths closed in the west.

It is also said to be important in the American Presidential Primary elections. States all vote at different times, spread over some months, rather than all on one day, some states (Iowa, New Hampshire) have special precedence to go early while others have to wait until a certain date. This is often said to give undue influence to these states, a win in these early states is said to give a Candidate the "Big Mo" and has propelled many candidates to win the nomination. Because of this other states often try frontloading (going as early as possible) to make their say as influential as they can. In this year's (2008's) primary election many states had all or some of there delegates banned from the convention by the cental party organisations for going too early. 5 states may lose half of GOP delegates Florida Democrats Stripped of Convention Delegates Due to Early Primary

Several studies have been done in order to test this theory of how the bandwagon effect and politics tie together. In 1994, a study by Robert K. Goidel and Todd G. Shields was published in The Journal of Politics. At the University of Kentucky, 180 students were randomly assigned to nine groups where they were asked questions about certain election scenarios. The scenarios presented to each group were identical, although about 70% of subjects received knowledge concerning the expected winner (Goidel and Shields 807). Independents, which are those who do not vote based on the endorsement of any party and are ultimately neutral, were extremely influenced and tended to lean towards the person expected to win (Goidel and Shields 807-808). Expectations played a significant role throughout the study. It was found that independents are twice as likely to vote for the Republican candidate when the Republican is expected to win. From the results, it was also found that when the Democrat was expected to win, independent Republicans and weak Republicans were more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate (Goidel and Shields 808).

A study by Albert Mehrabian, reported in The Journal of Applied Social Psychology (1998), tested the relative importance of the bandwagon (rally around the winner) effect versus the underdog (empathic support for those trailing) effect. Bogus poll results presented to voters prior to the 1996 Republican primary clearly showed the bandwagon effect to predominate on balance. Indeed, approximately 6% of the variance in the vote was explained in terms of the bogus polls, showing that poll results (whether accurate or inaccurate) can significantly influence election results in closely-contested elections. In particular, assuming that one candidate "is an initial favorite by a slim margin, reports of polls showing that candidate as the leader in the race will increase his or her favorable margin" (Mehrabian, 1998, p. 2128). Thus, as poll results are repeatedly reported, the bandwagon effect will tend to snowball and become a powerful aid to leading candidates.

During the 1992 U.S. presidential election, Vicki G. Morwitz and Carol Pluzinski conducted a study, which was published in The Journal of Consumer Research. At a large northeastern university, some of 214 volunteer business students were given the results of student and national polls indicating that Bill Clinton was in the lead. Others were not exposed to the results of the polls. Several students who had intended to vote for Bush changed their minds after seeing the poll results (Morwitz and Pluzinski 58-64).

Internationally, British polls have shown an increase to public exposure. Sixty-eight percent of voters had heard of the general election campaign results of the opinion poll in 1979. In 1987, this number of voters aware of the results increased to 74% (McAllister and Studlar 725). According to British studies, there is a consistent pattern of apparent bandwagon effects for the leading party.

[edit] Use in Microeconomics

In microeconomics, bandwagon effect describes interactions of demand and preference.[6] The bandwagon effect arises when people's preference for a commodity increases as the number of people buying it increases. This interaction potentially disturbs the normal results of the theory of supply and demand, which assumes that consumers make buying decisions solely based on price and their own personal preference. See network effect and Veblen good.

[edit] Use in the Music Industry

In music, bandwagon effect is a term for people who are fond of a musical group based on how popular the artist is at the time. For instance, certain people appreciate a song only once it is well-known.

[edit] Use in Sports

In sports, a 'bandwagoner' is a derogatory term for people who begin flocking to a team after they have achieved success. Fans of successful sporting teams who do not live in the traditional areas of their support are often accused of being 'bandwagon' fans, or if they only show an interest in the team when they are performing well. Bandwagoner's are also often called glory-hunters, frontrunners, or fairweather fans.


[edit] References

  1. ^ Andrew Colman, Oxford Dictionary of Psychology (Oxford: University, 2003) 77.
  2. ^ Bandwagon. Retrieved on 2007-03-09.
  3. ^ Dan Rice (1823-1901) — President Lincoln's Court Jester. Retrieved on 2007-03-09.
  4. ^ Bandwagon Effect. Retrieved on 2007-03-09.
  5. ^ New Evidence About the Existence of a Bandwagon Effect in the Opinion Formation Process. International Political Science Review, Vol. 14, No. 2, 203-213 (1993). Retrieved on 2007-03-09.
  6. ^ Harvey Leibenstein, “Bandwagon, Snob, and Veblen Effects in the Theory of Consumers’ Demand,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics (May 1950).

Goidel, Robert K., and Todd G. Shields. "The Vanishing Marginals, the Bandwagon, and the Mass Media." The Journal of Politics 56 (1994): 802-810. 11 Apr. 2007 <http://www.jstor.org/view/00223816/di976651/97p03825/0>.

McAllister, Ian, and Donley T. Studlar. "Bandwagon, Underdog, or Projection? Opinion Polls and Electoral Choice in Britain, 1979-1987." The Journal of Politics 53 (1991): 720-740. 9 Apr. 2007.

Mehrabian, Albert. "Effects of Poll Reports on Voter Preferences." Journal of Applied Social Psychology 28 (1998): 2119-2130. 11 Apr. 2007 <http://vnweb.hwwilsonweb.com/hww/results/results_common.jhtml?nn=4>.

Morwitz, Vicki G., and Carol Pluzinski. "Do Polls Reflect Opinions or Do Opinions Reflect Polls?" Journal of Consumer Research os 23 (1996): 53-65. 8 Apr. 2007.

[edit] See also

v • d • e
Propaganda techniques