World development

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This article is about current development of the world. For development in the past, see world history.

Contents

The development of the world is a very broad subject. It may include the astronomical developments of the entire universe, our galaxy, the solar system, the planet Earth. It may also include, relatively more specifically, the development of life and humanity, the latter which, in turn, may be divided into several fields of study.

In summary:


[edit] Astronomy

[edit] Universe

The expansion of the universe proceeds in all directions as determined by the Hubble constant today. However, the Hubble constant can change in the past and in the future.
The expansion of the universe proceeds in all directions as determined by the Hubble constant today. However, the Hubble constant can change in the past and in the future.
Further information: Physical cosmology

The universe is continuing its metric expansion of space. It is progressing towards one of the multiple proposed ultimate fates of the universe.

[edit] Our galaxy

The Milky Way, our galaxy, is continuing it's collision-course with the Andromeda galaxy at 100 to 140 kilometers per second, expecting to cause the Andromeda-Milky Way collision in 3 to 4 billion years.[1]

[edit] Our solar system

Further information: Risks to civilization, humans and planet Earth

As a result of steady accumulation of helium ash at the Sun's core, the star's total luminosity is slowly increasing. It will result in an increase of 10 percent over the next 1.1 billion years, thus not yet posing any threat to Earth.[2]

[edit] Earth

Global mean surface temperature anomaly 1850 to 2007 relative to 1961–1990
Global mean surface temperature anomaly 1850 to 2007 relative to 1961–1990
Main article: Risks to civilization, humans and planet Earth

The Earth is slowly cooling down, resulting in a slow loss of its atmosphere and oceans (due to lower volcanism), [3] progressing towards a complete loss of the surface water in a billion years[4]. The surface (biosphere), on the other hand, is increasing in greenhouse gases and is going through a global warming, with a temperature increase projected to result in a rise of 1.1 to 6.4 °C (2.0 to 11.5 °F) during the twenty-first century.[5]

[edit] Life

There is an ongoing extinction of species due to human influences. It is estimated at 100 to 1000 times "background" or average extinction rates in the evolutionary time scale of planet Earth;[6], and is not keeping up with speciation. It proceeds at a rate estimated to have eradicated half of presently existing species by 2100.[7]

Deforestation today proceeds at 55,630 to 120,000 square kilometres each year. At this rate, all tropical forests may be gone by the year 2090.

[edit] Humanity

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According to Human Development Index, life expectancy, literacy, education, standard of living, and GDP per capita are slowly increasing worldwide, although faster in some countries than others. The world population is increasing with 2.2 percent per year, expecting to reach nearly 9 billion by the year 2050. There is also an ongoing technology development, sociocultural evolution as well as economic development.

[edit] Human Development Index

Main article: Human Development Index
HDI trends      OECD      Central and eastern Europe, and the CIS      Latin America and the Caribbean      East Asia      Arab States      South Asia      Sub-Saharan Africa
HDI trends
     OECD      Central and eastern Europe, and the CIS      Latin America and the Caribbean      East Asia      Arab States      South Asia      Sub-Saharan Africa

The Human Development Index (HDI) is the normalized measure of life expectancy, literacy, education, standard of living, and GDP per capita for countries worldwide. It is a standard means of measuring well-being, especially child welfare.

The 2007 report showed a small increase in world HDI in comparison with last year's report. This rise was fueled by a general improvement in the developing world, especially of the least developed countries group. This marked improvement at the bottom was offset with a decrease in HDI of high income countries.

Population evolution in different continents. The vertical axis is logarithmic and is millions of people.
Population evolution in different continents. The vertical axis is logarithmic and is millions of people.

[edit] World population

Main article: Population growth

The world population is increasing with 2.2 percent per year, expecting to reach nearly 9 billion by the year 2050.

Globally, the growth rate of the human population has slowed down a little since its peak in the 1980s (see External Links), although the last one hundred years have seen a rapid increase in population due to medical advances and massive increase in agricultural productivity[8] made by the Green Revolution.[9][10][11]

The actual annual growth in the number of humans fell from its peak of 87 million per annum in the late 1980s, to a low of 75 million per annum in 2002, at which it stabilised and has started to slowly rise again to 77 million per annum in 2007. Growth remains high in the Middle East, South Asia, Southeast Asia, Latin America, and primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa.[12]

In some countries there is negative population growth (ie. net decrease in population over time), especially in Central and Eastern Europe (mainly due to low fertility rates) and Southern Africa (due to the high number of HIV-related deaths). Within the next decade, Japan and some countries in Western Europe are also expected to encounter negative population growth due to sub-replacement fertility rates.

It may require sustainable development in order to balancing the fulfillment of human needs with the protection of the natural environment so that these needs can be met not only in the present, but in the indefinite future.

[edit] Technology

Main article: Technology development
Further information: List of emerging technologies

There is an accelerating change in technology, perhaps approaching a technological singularity.

The progress in artificial intelligence is approaching stage where artificial intelligence is superhuman in the board game Go[13] and machine translation.

Examples of emerging technologies are Synthetic biology, Electric cars with range extenders and Personal rapid transit, Nanomaterials, Wireless communication with ubiquitous network connectivity, Anti-aging drugs, Semantic Web, more efficient bio fuels, Machine translation, Nuclear fusion power, 3D optical data storage or Holographic data storage, Metamaterials, 3D displays, Quantum computing, Nanowire batteries, Virtual retinal displays and WiTricity (Wireless energy transfer).

[edit] Socioculture

Further information: Sociocultural evolution

There is an ongoing sociocultural evolution worldwide. However, it is hard to measure.

[edit] Economy

     Newly industrialized countries      Other emerging markets      Other developing economies
     Newly industrialized countries      Other emerging markets      Other developing economies
Main article: Economic development

North America, even though one of the slowest growing continents, has stable growth. Most of the faster growing economies are in the Caribbean.

South America has a Boom and Bust growth with high followed by recession growth, most notable in Brazil, however growth has been stabilizing and the whole continent is growing

Africa has seen the fastest growing but also the slowest growing/declining. From the oil fields which made Angola the 3nd fastest country in the world, to Zimbabwe the slowest growing and declining country in the world. Out of the 10 fastest growing countries in the world: 3 are African.

Europe has one of the most stable growth. If the Causacus were included, Europe would be one of the fastest growing continents in the world. Most countries are growing at a medium speed however many smaller countries exceed 7% and grow exceptionally faster than their neighbors. Out of the 10 fastest growing countries in the world: 1 is in Europe.

World map showing GDP real growth rates for 2007.
World map showing GDP real growth rates for 2007.

Most of the Asian economic development has been dominated by China, but some spots of growth are starting to appear in East and even South Asia. Most nations with high populations have seen high growth especially. Meanwhile Oceania has moderate growth. Out of the 10 fastest growing countries : 3 are directly in Asia and 3 indirectly or partially.

Many countries have negative growth and are mainly because of: Population decline, ongoing wars and hyperinflation.

[edit] See also

[edit] References

  1. ^ Wong, Janet. "Astrophysicist maps out our own galaxy's end", University of Toronto, April 14, 2000. Retrieved on 2007-01-11. 
  2. ^ Sackmann, I.-J.; Boothroyd, A. I.; Kraemer, K. E. (1993). "Our Sun. III. Present and Future". Astrophysical Journal 418: 457–468. 
  3. ^ Guillemot, H.; Greffoz, V. (Mars 2002). "Ce que sera la fin du monde" (in French). Science et Vie N° 1014. 
  4. ^ Carrington, Damian. "Date set for desert Earth", BBC News, February 21, 2000. Retrieved on 2007-03-31. 
  5. ^ Summary for Policymakers (PDF). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007-02-05). Retrieved on 2007-02-02. “The updated hundred-year linear trend (1906 to 2005) of 0.74 °C [0.56 °C to 0.92 °C] is therefore larger than the corresponding trend for 1901 to 2000 given in the TAR of 0.6 °C [0.4 °C to 0.8 °C].”
  6. ^ J.H.Lawton and R.M.May, Extinction rates, Oxford University Press, Oxford, UK
  7. ^ Wilson, E.O., The Future of Life (2002) (ISBN 0-679-76811-4). See also: Leakey, Richard, The Sixth Extinction : Patterns of Life and the Future of Humankind, ISBN 0-385-46809-1
  8. ^ BBC NEWS | The end of India's green revolution?
  9. ^ Food First/Institute for Food and Development Policy
  10. ^ Rising food prices curb aid to global poor
  11. ^ Record rise in wheat price prompts UN official to warn that surge in food prices may trigger social unrest in developing countries
  12. ^ Ron Nielsen, The little green handbook, Picador, New York (2006) ISBN 0312425813
  13. ^ Computer Go#Computers versus humans

[edit] External links