Talk:World population estimates
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[edit] Millions, thousands, or full numbers?
I think the full numbers (like "1,000,000,000") take up a lot of space (a problem if more columns are added later, but not really a problem at the moment), and also includes a lot of meaningless zeros - most values in the table are at best accurate to the nearest million only. Therefore, I prefer giving numbers all numbers "in millions" (like 1000 for one billion).
The obvious disadvantage is that some of the numbers, having decimal protions because they are given to e.g. the nearest half million or nearest thousand, do not align well in the table. I can imagine several ways to deal with that:
- Leave it as full numbers.
- Use millions and accept the not-so-nice alignment.
- Align the million numbers on the decimal point (but how do you do that in wiki format?).
- Round all figures to the nearest million - that would hardly loose any reliable significant digits anyway. The full numbers could be left as comments in the source.
- As a compromise, give all numbers to the nearest thousand (a choice used in World population).
So what do you think?--Niels Ø 09:41, 19 November 2006 (UTC)
- Hi Noe. Thanks for presenting all the option s. I like the whole numbers because they are very clear (everyone understands "7,851,455,000" but I don't think everyone will understand "7,851.455 in millions"). I don't think "1000 for one billion" is intuitive or straightforward. I believe alignment is paramount in tables, because it allows for the easy comparison of numbers. Compare:
-
9,075,903,000 9,243,000,000 9,000,000,000 8,918,724,000
-
9075.903 9243 9000 8918.724
- I also put footnotes on the left of the numbers in order to avoid messing with the alignment, even though it seems a bit awkward. If the table becomes too large, we could split it or reduce the font size to 90%. Thanks for starting the page! — Reinyday, 17:04, 19 November 2006 (UTC)
[edit] Note on years
The following text has been in and out of the article a number of times. I guess it may not belong in the article, but then I think it belongs here in the talk:
- Year 1950 of course means 1950 CE, but negative years can be interpreted in two different ways. The mathematically most meaningful interpretation is to let 0 represent year 1 BCE, and year -1000 represent 1001 BCE. A more straightforward interpretation is to let -1000 mean 1000 BCE, but then year 0 means nothing at all. In the table in the article, either interpretation may be used - the slight difference is irrelevant for our purposes. Similarly, -1 000 000 may mean 1 000 000 BCE, 1 000 001 BCE, or 1 000 000 BP (Before Present), i.e. about 998 000 BCE (writing around year 2000).
--Niels Ø (noe) (talk) 16:41, 20 January 2008 (UTC)
[edit] Why the historical estimates compiled by the US Census averaged?
That table itself is a good summary of original works by different researchers. It's much better to cite original works by Biraben (1979, 1980), Durand (1974), Haub (1995, Haub is a member of PRB and his estimates are already tabulated as PRB in this article), UN (1999, together with the esitmates after 1950 which are already tabulated in this article), and especially, McEvedy and Jones (1978). I found that Thomlinson's work is just using older estimates by Carr-Saunders (1936) and UN Demographic Yearbooks and not the work to be cited here.
Kremer's estimates (1993) for the period from -10000 to 1900 are perfectly the same with the estimates by McEvedy & Jones (1978) and those for the period from 1920 to 1980 are those by the UN Statistical Yeabooks (1952 and 1985/6 editions) (actually referred in the article). Kremer's estimates should be deleted.
I haven't read Ponting's book, but most (not all) of its estimates are the same with those by McEvedy & Jones (1978). I suspect Ponting's estimates are rather to be deleted.
Also I think about.com's data are not the work to be cited here. It is not clear who have estimated (maybe by Matt Rosenberg) and also estimates are similar to those by UN Census Bureau and those by Thomlinson. (Maybe compiled based on the table of US Census Bureau.) —Preceding unsigned comment added by Aurichalcum (talk • contribs) 08:16, 6 June 2008 (UTC) Sorry, I forgot signature.Aurichalcum (talk) 09:03, 6 June 2008 (UTC)
- I compiled the original version of this table years ago from the sources I could easily find - Ponting in my bookshelf; the rest by googling. A more critical version, replacing secondary sources by primary ones, would certainly be an improvement. I think UN's values should be presented as such, even though they depend on other sources; stating such dependencies would be good too. - Go ahead if you have the konwledge and energy!--Noe (talk) 09:27, 6 June 2008 (UTC)
I have summarized all the data in the original works cited in this article or in the U.S. Census Bureau's Historical Estimates of World Population, except for some year-to-year data presented in the US census of Bureau (2008) for the period of 1950-2050 and Maddison (2001) for the period of 1950-1998. Ponting's book is not cited, for I havn't read it by myself. Population are presented in millions.
| Year | USCB (2008) | UN PP (2006) | UN ESA (1999) | PRB (Haub, 2007, (2006), (2005)) | Haub [PRB] (1995, (2002)) | Maddison (2001) | Tanton (1994) | Kremer (1993) | Biraben (1980) | McEvedy & Jones (1978) | Thomlinson (1975) | Durand (1974) | Clark (1967) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| estimation | original | original | citing UN estimates | original | original | maybe original but citing McEvedy & Jones and UN estimates | citing McEvedy & Jones and UN estimates | original | original | maybe original but citing Carr-Saunders and UN estimates | original | original | |
| −1,000,000 | 0.125 | ||||||||||||
| −300,000 | 1 | ||||||||||||
| −50,000 | two persons | ||||||||||||
| −25,000 | 3.34 | ||||||||||||
| −10,000 | 4 | 4 | 1-10 | ||||||||||
| −8000 | 5 | 5-10 | |||||||||||
| −5000 | 5 | 5 | 5-20 | ||||||||||
| −4000 | 7 | 7 | |||||||||||
| −3000 | 14 | 14 | |||||||||||
| −2000 | 27 | 27 | |||||||||||
| −1000 | 50 | 50 | |||||||||||
| −500 | 100 | 100 | |||||||||||
| −400 | 162 | ||||||||||||
| −200 | 150 | 231 | 150 | ||||||||||
| 1 | 300 | 300 | 230.820 | 150 | 170 | 255 (270-330) | 170 | 200 | 270-330 | ||||
| 14 | 256 | ||||||||||||
| 200 | 190 | 256 | 190 | ||||||||||
| 350 | 254 | ||||||||||||
| 400 | 190 | 206 | 190 | ||||||||||
| 500 | 206 | 190 | |||||||||||
| 600 | 200 | 206 | 200 | 237 | |||||||||
| 700 | 207 | 210 | |||||||||||
| 800 | 220 | 224 | 220 | 261 | |||||||||
| 900 | 226 | 240 | |||||||||||
| 1000 | 310 | 268.273 | 265 | 254 (275-345) | 265 | 275-345 | 280 | ||||||
| 1100 | 320 | 301 | 320 | ||||||||||
| 1200 | 450 | 360 | 400 | 360 | 384 | ||||||||
| 1250 | 400 | 416 | 350-450 | ||||||||||
| 1300 | 300 | 360 | 432 | 360 | 400 | ||||||||
| 1340 | 443 | 378 | |||||||||||
| 1400 | 350 | 374 | 350 | ||||||||||
| 1500 | 500 | 437.818 | 425 | 460 (440-540) | 425 | 440-540 | 427 | ||||||
| 1600 | 555.828 | 545 | 579 | 545 | 498 | ||||||||
| 1650 | 500 | 545 | 545 | 500 | 516 | ||||||||
| 1700 | 603.410 | 600 | 610 | 679 | 610 | 600 | 641 | ||||||
| 1750 | 791 | 795 | 720 | 770 (735-805) | 720 | 700 | 735-805 | 731 | |||||
| 1800 | 978 | 900 | 900 | 954 | 900 | 900 | 890 | ||||||
| 1820 | 1,041.092 | ||||||||||||
| 1850 | 1,262 | 1,265 | 1,200 | 1,241 | 1,200 | 1,200 | |||||||
| 1870 | 1,270.014 | ||||||||||||
| 1875 | 1,325 | 1,325 | |||||||||||
| 1900 | 1,650 | 1,656 | 1,600 | 1,625 | 1,633 (1,650-1,710) | 1,625 | 1,600 | 1,650-1,710 | 1,668 | ||||
| 1910 | 1,750 | ||||||||||||
| 1913 | 1,791.020 | ||||||||||||
| 1920 | 1,860 | 1,813 | 1,968 | ||||||||||
| 1925 | 2,000 | ||||||||||||
| 1930 | 2,070 | 1,987 | 2,145 | ||||||||||
| 1940 | 2,300 | 2,213 | 2,340 | ||||||||||
| 1950 | 2,555.948,654 | 2,535.093 | 2,521 | 2,516 | 2,524.531 | 2,400 | 2,516 | 2,527 | 2,500 | 2,400 | 2,499 | ||
| 1955 | 2,780.413,010 | 2,770.753 | 2,766.752 | ||||||||||
| 1960 | 3,039.962,148 | 3,031.931 | 3,020 | 3,038.332 | 3,019 | ||||||||
| 1962 | 3,136.636,618 | 3,131.974 | 3,036 | ||||||||||
| 1965 | 3,346.090,254 | 3,342.771 | 3,327.615 | ||||||||||
| 1966 | 3,416.212,203 | 3,396.148 | 3,288 | ||||||||||
| 1970 | 3,707.183,055 | 3,698.676 | 3,700 | 3,682.507 | 3,693 | 3,637 (3,600-3,700) | 3,600 | 3,600-3,700 | |||||
| 1973 | 3,936.068,571 | 3,913.482 | |||||||||||
| 1975 | 4,082.959,684 | 4,076.080 | 4,060.793 | 3,900 | 4,000 | ||||||||
| 1980 | 4,446.260,631 | 4,451.470 | 4,440 | 4,430.445 | 4,450 | ||||||||
| 1985 | 4,842.981,705 | 4,855.264 | 4,824.495 | 5,000 | |||||||||
| 1990 | 5,272.635,763 | 5,294.879 | 5,270 | 5,253.262 | 5,333 | ||||||||
| 1995 | 5,680.970,858 | 5,719.045 | 5,760 | 5,668.520 | |||||||||
| 1998 | 5,917.751,492 | 5,907.680 | |||||||||||
| 1999 | 5,994.573,609 | 5,978.401 | |||||||||||
| 2000 | 6,070.587,733 | 6,124.123 | 6,060 | 5,750 | |||||||||
| 2002 | 6,221.194,426 | (6,215) | |||||||||||
| 2005 | 6,447.427,283 | 6,514.751 | (6,477) | ||||||||||
| 2006 | 6,523.764,154 | (6,555) | |||||||||||
| 2007 | 6,600.411,051 | 6,625 | |||||||||||
| 2008 | 6,677.602,292 | ||||||||||||
| 2010 | 6,832.877,668 | 6,906.558 (6,843.645-6,967.407) | 6,790 | ||||||||||
| 2015 | 7,223.520,264 | 7,295.135 (7,127.009-7,459.289) | |||||||||||
| 2020 | 7,600.527,594 | 7,667.090 (7,363.824-7,966.382) | 7,500 | 8,000 | |||||||||
| 2025 | 7,954.961,913 | 8,010.509 (7,568.539-8,450.822) | 7,965 | ||||||||||
| 2030 | 8,285.870,884 | 8,317.707 (7,727.192-8,913.727) | 8,110 | ||||||||||
| 2035 | 8,595.981,287 | 8,587.050 (7,828.666-9,368.004) | |||||||||||
| 2040 | 8,885.308,363 | 8,823.546 (7,871.770-9,829.962) | 8,580 | ||||||||||
| 2045 | 9,151.850,047 | 9,025.982 (7,857.864-10,297.036) | |||||||||||
| 2050 | 9,392.797,012 | 9,191.287 (7,791.945-10,756.366) | 8,909 | 9,294 | |||||||||
| 2100 | 9,460 | 8,250 | |||||||||||
| 2150 | 9,746 | ||||||||||||
| 2200 | 8,250 |
- USCB (2008): Latest estimates by U. S. Census Bureau.
- UNPP (2006): Data from World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision.
- UN ESA (1999): Data from The World at Six Billion (1999).
- PRB (2007): Data from Carl Haub, 2007, "2007 World Population Data Sheet." Data for 2006 and 2005 are from "2006 World Population Data Sheet" and "2005 World Population Data Sheet."
- PRB (1995): Carl Haub, 1995, "How Many People Have Ever Lived on Earth?" Population Today, Vol. 23 (no. 2), pp. 5–6. Data for 2002 are from Population Today, Vol. 30 (no. 8), pp. 3–4.
- Maddison (2001): Angus Maddison, 2001, "The World Economy: A Millenium Perspective", OECD, Paris.
- Tanton (1994): John H. Tanton, 1994, "End of the Migration Epoch? Time For a New Paradigm," The Social Contract, Vol. 4 (no 3), pp. 162–173.
- Kremer (1993): Michael Kremer, 1993, "Population Growth and Technological Change: One Million B.C. to 1990", Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 108 (no. 3), pp. 681–716.
- Biraben (1980): Jean-Noël Biraben, 1980, "An Essay Concerning Mankind's Evolution", Population, Selected Papers, Vol. 4, pp. 1–13. This article is translated from the original French paper, though figures are slightly updated from the original paper: Jean-Noël Biraben, 1979, "Essai sur l'évolution du nombre des hommes", Population, Vol. 34 (no. 1), pp. 13–25.
- McEvedy & Jones (1978): Colin McEvedy and Richard Jones, 1978, "Atlas of World Population History," Facts on File, New York. ISBN 0-7139-1031-3.
- Thomlinson (1975): Ralph Thomlinson, 1975, "Demographic Problems: Controversy over population control," 2nd Ed., Dickenson Publishing Company, Ecino, CA. ISBN 0-8221-0166-1
- Durand (1974): John D. Durand, 1974, "Historical Estimates of World Population: An Evaluation," University of Pennsylvania, Population Center, Analytical and Technical Reports, Number 10.
- Clark (1967): Colin Clark, 1967, "Population Growth and Land Use," St. Martin's Press, New York. ISBN 0-333-01126-0
Estimates before 10,000 BC seem unmeaningful, for the obscured definition of human beings (Homo sapiens, the genus Homo, or all fossil Hominids). Estimates after AD 2050 are also not trustworthy.
Estimates by UN PP (2006) and UN ESA (1999) can be combined as UN estimates. Estimates by PRB (or Haub, 2007) and PRB (or Haub, 1995) can be combined as PRB estimates. At least Kremer's estimates should not be cited. I think Ponting's estimates are also too similar to those by McEvedy & Jones.Aurichalcum (talk) 13:45, 6 June 2008 (UTC)Aurichalcum (talk) 14:02, 6 June 2008 (UTC)
HYDE 3.0 may be another good source for the population estimates. http://www.mnp.nl/en/themasites/hyde/index.html Aurichalcum (talk) 08:31, 7 June 2008 (UTC)
I shall revise the table tomorrow as follows:
| Year | USCB
(2008) |
PRB
(2007) |
UN
(2006) |
HYDE
(2006) |
Maddison
(2001) |
Tanton
(1994) |
Biraben
(1980) |
McEvedy &
Jones (1978) |
Thomlinson
(1975) |
Durand
(1974) |
Clark
(1967) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1950 | 2,555,948,654 | 2,516,000,000 | 2,535,093,000 | 2,528,313,293 | 2,524,531,000 | 2,400,000,000 | 2,527,000,000 | 2,500,000,000 | 2,400,000,000 | 2,499,000,000 | |
| 1955 | 2,780,413,010 | 2,770,753,000 | 2,767,727,535 | 2,766,752,000 | |||||||
| 1960 | 3,039,962,148 | 3,031,931,000 | 3,035,624,545 | 3,038,332,000 | |||||||
| 1962 | 3,136,636,618 | 3,155,862,958 | 3,131,974,000 | 3,036,000,000 | |||||||
| 1965 | 3,346,090,254 | 3,342,771,000 | 3,351,348,699 | 3,327,615,000 | |||||||
| 1966 | 3,416,212,203 | 3,420,389,193 | 3,396,148,000 | 3,288,000,000 | |||||||
| 1970 | 3,707,183,055 | 3,698,676,000 | 3,696,590,163 | 3,682,507,000 | 3,637,000,000 | 3,600,000,000 | 3,600,000,000
–3,700,000,000 |
Aurichalcum (talk) 09:07, 7 June 2008 (UTC)
