United States Senate elections, 2006/Non-partisan election analyses
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[edit] Non-partisan election analyses
Below is a table summarizing various non-partisan election analyses. Although the nomenclature varies slightly, the categories can be understood as follows:
"Safe" -- the race is not expected to become competitive.
"Favored" -- the race is currently not competitive, but may become competitive if new political factors intervene.
"Leans" -- the race is competitive, but one candidate has a clear advantage.
"Tossup" -- neither candidate has a clear advantage.
The ratings below are current as of October 4, 2006.
| Source | Safe Democrat [1] | Democrat Favored | Leans Democrat | Tossup | Leans Republican | Republican Favored | Safe Republican[2] |
| CQPolitics.com (updates) | West Virginia | Connecticut* Florida Michigan Vermont* |
Maryland Nebraska Pennsylvania Washington |
Minnesota Missouri Montana New Jersey Ohio Rhode Island Tennessee |
Virginia | Arizona | |
| Cook Political Report (updates) | Connecticut* Florida Vermont* |
Nebraska West Virginia |
Michigan Maryland Minnesota Washington |
Missouri Montana New Jersey Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee Virginia |
Arizona | ||
| Sabato's Crystal Ball (updates) | Connecticut* Florida West Virginia |
Vermont* | Maryland Michigan Minnesota Montana Nebraska Pennsylvania Washington |
Missouri New Jersey Ohio Rhode Island Tennessee |
Virginia | Arizona | |
| Rasmussen Reports (updates) | Connecticut* Florida Vermont* West Virginia |
(no category) | Maryland Michigan Minnesota Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island Tennessee Washington |
Missouri New Jersey |
Virginia | (no category) | Arizona |
| TradeSports** (updates) | Florida Vermont* West Virginia |
Connecticut* Maryland Minnesota Montana Ohio Pennsylvania Rhode Island |
Michigan Washington |
Missouri New Jersey Tennessee |
Virginia | Arizona |
Blue=Seats held by Democrats or Independents that caucus with Democrats prior to 2006 election
Red=Seats held by Republicans prior to 2006 election
*=Will caucus with Democrats despite election leader not running as a Democratic Party candidate
**=Tradesports does not have named categories, but instead gives percentage chances of a given outcome, based on what the market will bear. "Safe" races are those were one candidate is given more than 95% chance to win, "favored" are those where a candidate is given more than a 2/3 chance to win, "leans" are those where one candidate is favored by more than 55%, and "tossup" are ones where neither candidate is more than 55% chance to win.
