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Cyclone death toll higher; 7.9 earthquake reported in China TD Cosme, TD 04W
May 15, 2008 (01:48 EDT)

Contents

[edit] Cyclone Nargis death toll

Current Cyclone Nargis death toll is at 38,491, and rising. [1] The number of missing people: 27,838. Do you feel bad? Then donate with Google. Google will donate 1 million dollars if you help.

The UN fear that up to 2.5 million could die if better aid doesn't come into Myanmar.[2]

[edit] 2008 Sichuan earthquake death toll up to 17,000

For more on this, see Wikilink. Note that in Korean this is pronounced Sa-chon dae-ji-jin- 사천대지진, meaning Sinchuan large earthquake.

[edit] TD Cosme and TD 04W

TD Cosme as of now is called TD a by the JMA and 95W by the JTWC. 95W is now under a Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert.
WTPN21 PGTW 142000 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.1N 114.7E TO 16.3N 118.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IM- AGERY AT 141951Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 115.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) POSIT- IONED JUST EAST OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI- CIRCLE. A 141435Z AMSU IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT OF THE DISTURBANCE WITH AN ELONGATED LLCC. THE 141051Z QUIKSCAT IMAGE SHOWS A MORE DEFINED CENTER WITH 15-20 KNOT UNFLAGGED WINDS AND STRONGER WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH THE LLCC LOCATED UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCED BY MIDLATITUDE TROUGHING NORTH OF THE LLCC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 152000Z.// NNNN

Tropical Depression 04W is 96W.INVEST. The depression is now being called TD b by JMA, and an ALPA (Active Low Pressure Area).

Latest advisory: REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 124.0E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.// NNNN

[edit] 96B

The TCFA for 96B was cancelled due to the weakening LLCC (low level circulation center) and land interaction.