Image:Norway hubbert.jpg

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[edit] Description 

Français :

Production de pétrole de la Norvège : chiffres historiques (carrés bruns) comparés avec la modélisation par une courbe de Hubbert prévoyant une production totale de 32 milliards de barrils avec un pic en l'an 2000 et un paramètre 1/b = 6,5 (exprimant le taux de croissance initial et de déclin final).

La Norvège a connu une exploration pétrolière rapide et sans relâche, les gisements ont été mis en production au fur et à mesure de leur découverte et aucun évèement grave n'a causé d'interruption.

Ces trois facteurs expliquent la qualité excellente de la superposition entre modèle et données historiques. Selon le modèle, il reste 11 milliards de barrils à produire. Les réserves annoncées par la Norvège, qui a une qualité d'information unique au monde, sont de 10 milliards de barrils.

L'effondrement futur de la production parait inéluctable, sauf si une nouvelle province (donc non incluse dans cette courbe) est trouvée.

English:

Oil Production of Norway: historical figures (brown squares) compared with a Hubbert curve calculated with a total production of 32 billion barrels, peak in the year 2000 and 1/b parameter = 6.5 (his parameter describe initial growth / final decline rate).

Norway knew a fast, intensive oil exploration, fields were produced as fast as possible after their discovery and nothing came to disrupt production.

These three factors explain the good superposition between historical data and model. According to the model, 11 billion barrels are still to be produced. The reserves announced by Norway, which has a single quality of information in the world, are 10 billion barrels.

The future collapse of the production appears inescapable, except if a new province (thus not included in this curve) is found.

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Utilisateur/User (fr): [1]

Logiciel Utilisé/software used : OpenOffice 2.0

Données historiques de production de BP statistical review of world Energy 2006

Historical data from "BP statistical review of world Energy 2006"

File history

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Date/TimeDimensionsUserComment
current16:19, 22 January 20071,201×900 (81 KB)Raminagrobis (newx version, with 2006 production. Made under matlab. )
15:02, 6 September 2006601×431 (40 KB)Pixel ;-) (== Description  == Production de pétrole de la Norvège : chiffres historiques (carrés bruns) comparés avec la modélisation par une courbe de Hubbert prévoyant une production totale de 32 milliards de barrils avec un pic en l'an 2000 et un para)
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