Talk:Next Australian federal election
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This article was nominated for deletion on November 28, 2007. The result of the discussion was keep. |
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[edit] This article should be AfD'd
Per other past examples, we should not be creating an article for election so far away. AfD? Timeshift (talk) 01:56, 16 December 2007 (UTC)
- It was nominated; the result of the discussion can be seen at Wikipedia:Articles for deletion/Australian federal election, 2010. As you can see, the result was to keep the article. The article was renamed as a result of the discussion. -- Mattinbgn\talk 01:58, 16 December 2007 (UTC)
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- At least some of the information (eg. footers) is duplicate of Elections in Australia. Merge? --Brendan [ contribs ] 02:30, 16 December 2007 (UTC)
- As the link from Mattinbgn shows, there was an extremely thorough discussion as to what to do with the article, only about 3 weeks ago, and the result was keep. I don't think anything major has changed since then. About the only thing I can think of is that the date of the first sitting of the parliament is now known - this only makes the article more viable. -- Chuq (talk) 00:50, 21 December 2007 (UTC)
[edit] Election campaigns can be up to 68 days/10 weeks...
Is it just too late and not reading the article correctly? Section 157 of the Electoral Act says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination."? Timeshift (talk) 16:10, 19 December 2007 (UTC)
- You are correct; As it says at http://www.aph.gov.au/library/pubs/rn/2005-06/06rn04.htm "The time allowed from the expiry or dissolution of the House to polling day is therefore not less than 33 days and not more than 68 days." Barrylb (talk) 16:29, 19 December 2007 (UTC)
[edit] Opening paragraph - dissolution or expiry
The next Australian federal election will elect members of the 43rd Parliament of Australia and must be held on or before April 16, 2011. The election will be called following the dissolution of the current Parliament.
- This will almost certainly be the case. However, it will not necessarily be the case, and we’re not a crystal ball. Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every H of R shall continue for 3 years from the first meeting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General". That is, the default position is that the house expires after 3 years, without any intervention. The GG can dissolve it earlier, and this has almost always been what has occurred – almost, but not quite. The 3rd Parliament first sat on 20 February 1907. It was never dissolved by the GG and it expired on 19 February 1910 [1].
- It’s possible this could happen with the current parliament. We've giving 16 April 2011 as the last possible date of the election, which is correct, but the only way that day could be election day is if the parliament is not dissolved by the GG but continues for the full 3 years and expires on 12 February 2011 simply by the operation of s.28.
- I’m changing the sentence to "The election will be called following the dissolution or expiry of the current Parliament". -- JackofOz (talk) 01:38, 21 December 2007 (UTC)
Hmmm.. a few of the dates may be off by one, based on the 1907-1910 example. Article current says "first meet on February 12, 2008. Therefore it expires on February 12, 2011" but it looks based on the example above, it actually expires a day earlier. Barrylb (talk) 06:52, 21 December 2007 (UTC)
- Good pick-up, Barrylb. I've made the corrections in the article. -- JackofOz (talk) 21:20, 21 December 2007 (UTC)
[edit] Early election prediction
Commentators such as David Barnett from The Canberra Times predict the election will be called early and .....
Is it enough to report these predictions, or do we need to explain what is meant by "early"? Given that all but one of the 41 completed parliaments have been dissolved early, it's hardly an earth-shattering prediction, unless it's given some meat in terms of specific time periods. In any case, where's the cut-off point between "early" and "not early"? Constitutionally, if the parliament is dissolved a week before it was due to expire in February 2011, or even a day before, this is nevertheless still "early". -- JackofOz (talk) 05:53, 12 January 2008 (UTC)
- In the article Barnett reckons the election is "more likely in two years' time rather than three" so we should probably reflect that, since I don't think we can define "early". Barrylb (talk) 11:45, 12 January 2008 (UTC)
[edit] Margin and seats needed for victory
Probably WP:OR, but I think winning nine seats (Braddon, 1.44%) will be enough because the two independents are more likely to be in government with the coalition. Guy0307 (talk) 06:48, 3 February 2008 (UTC)
- The format has always been the number of seats needed for majority, not minority government. 76 of 150 seats. Timeshift (talk) 07:24, 3 February 2008 (UTC)
[edit] half-senate
Per this, it needs rewording as it covers both seperate half-senate and full elections, but says that less than instead of more than half are voted in which for full elections is incorrect. Timeshift (talk) 03:41, 16 February 2008 (UTC)
- You're right, it does need rewording. But it's a bit complicated. If there's a separate "half-Senate" election - unlikely but possible - half of the 72 state senators will be involved, and only them. That's 36, slightly less than half of 76. But if the "half-Senate" is elected on the same day as the House of Reps election, then the territory senators become involved, pushing the number up to 40, slightly more than half of 76. Either way, it’s never exactly half, so some explanation is required if we use the “half-Senate” terminology. I think the solution is not to use it. How about:
- A Senate election must be held before 30 June 2011 but it will probably be held in conjunction with the House of Representatives election. In this event, half (36) of the 72 state senators and all 4 of the territory senators will face election. There are precedents for holding a separate Senate election, but the last time this occurred was 1970. If this were to occur, however, the only senators to face election would be the 36 state senators referred to above.
- We could go further and explain why it varies:
[edit] Polling
63-37% 2pp and 73-7% ppm are new records for Newspoll. Noteable for the article? Timeshift (talk) 23:15, 3 March 2008 (UTC)
