Talk:Neglect of probability
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even when presented unemotionally, people fall victim to this when asked this question:
"I will flip a special coin 100 times. This coin has the property of coming up heads 70% of the time and tails 30% of the time. Before each flip you will guess heads or tails. You will receive 1$ for each successful guess. How should you guess?"
The correct answer is to guess heads 100 times, but people often say to guess heads 70 times and tails 30 times.
- Okay. Now tell us why.
[edit] Hsee example needs reworking badly
"In another example of near-total neglect of probability , Rottenstreich and Hsee (2001) found that the typical subject was willing to pay $7 to avoid a 1% chance of a painful electric shock, and $10 - only a little more - to avoid a 99% chance of the same shock. (They suggest that probability is more likely to be neglected when the outcomes are emotion arousing.)" As currently written, this seems to be a "duh" response. If someone is willing to pay $7 to avoid a 1% chance, paying less than $693 to avoid a 99% chance is a bargain. Perhaps this needs to be rephrased, but the current way it's phrased only proves that people are willing to pay less than the maximum amount they'd accept... a trivial principle of economics Eoseth (talk) 04:49, 10 June 2008 (UTC)
