User:Mr.Z-man/FA promotion

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Based on the number of articles promoted to FA status each month (available here), the number of articles promoted to FA status per month increases each month. Using a linear approximation, the promotion rate increases at the rate of:


promotions\;per\;month = .94683934628433x+18.988405797101


Where x corresponds to the month. x = 1 is November 2003, x = 46 is August 2007. Using this, the number of articles promoted in September 2007 (x = 47) should be around 63. The number of articles promoted in September 2008 (x = 59) should be around 75. Using this, with the curent number of FAs at the start of September, 1,572, an estimation can be made of the number of FAs in any given future month.
1572+\sum_{k=47}^N .94683934628433k+18.988405797101

Using this, we should have ~1,654 FAs by the end of September 2007 and 2,000 FAs between February and March of 2008. This is assuming that the promotion rate increases at a linear rate. If we use a quadratic approximation:
1572+\sum_{k=47}^N .00986215064613k^2+.48331826591621k+22.696574440048

Which gives ~1,658 FAs by the end of September 2007 and 2000 FAs between January and February of 2008.