Litvinenko assassination theories

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Several theories of poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko circulated after his death.

Contents

[edit] Russian Government involvement theory

The circumstances surrounding Litvinenko's death led immediately to suspicion that he was killed by a Russian secret service, although there was no hard proof of this and the evidence was only circumstantial. [1] Viktor Ilyukhin, a deputy chairman of the Russian Parliament’s security committee for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, said that he "can’t exclude that possibility". He said: "That former KGB officer had been irritating the Russian authorities for a long time and possibly knew some state secrets. So when our special services got the chance to operate not only inside but outside the country, they decided to get rid of him."[2] He apparently referred to a recent Russian counter-terrorism law that gives the President the right to order such actions.[3][4] Moreover, it has been reported in the Chechen State Press that an investigator of the Russian apartment bombings, Mikhail Trepashkin wrote in a letter from prison that an FSB team had organised in 2002 to kill Litvinenko. He also reported FSB plans to kill relatives of Litvinenko in Moscow in 2002, although these have not been carried out.[5][6]

Leonid Nevzlin, a former Yukos oil company shareholder and Russian exile currently living in Israel, told the Associated Press in late November that Litvinenko had given him a document related to a dossier on criminal charges made by Russian prosecutors against people connected to Yukos. Nevzlin, who is charged by Russian prosecutors with having organized killings, fraud and tax evasion (all these charges are widely believed to be politically motivated), claimed Litvinenko's inquiries may have provided a motive for his poisoning.[7]

State Duma member Sergei Abeltsev commented on 24 November 2006:[8]

“ The deserved punishment reached the traitor. I am confident that this terrible death will be a serious warning to traitors of all colors, wherever they are located: In Russia, they do not pardon treachery. I would recommend citizen Berezovsky to avoid any food at the commemoration for his accomplice Litvinenko. ”

Litvinenko's widow Marina Litvinenko told Mail on Sunday that she believed the Russian authorities could have been behind the murder, although she didn't think president Putin himself was directly involved. Furthermore, she said she would not cooperate with the Russian investigators:[9]

“ I can't believe that they will tell the truth. I can't believe if they ask about evidence they will use it in the proper way. ”

KGB defector Oleg Gordievsky has stated that Andrei Lugovoi "was working on behalf of the KGB with clear instructions from Putin to kill Litvinenko at any price."[10]

[edit] Russian Government response

The state controlled press in Russia has offered a number of alternatives to Litvinenko's demise.[11] As one example, Russian state television has taken the view that if Litvinenko knew any important secrets, he would already have made them public during his six-year-long stay in the United Kingdom. According to this view, he was not an important person and not worth a loud political scandal. Also a suspicious simultaneousness between the deaths of the so-called oppositionals and big international summits with Russian participation was noted, along with the question who could be interested in worsening Russia's and Putin's image in front of them.[12]

Vladimir Putin's aide Sergei Yastrzhembsky commented:

“ The excessive number of calculated coincidences between the deaths of people, who defined themselves as the opposition to the Russian authorities, and major international events involving Vladimir Putin is a source of concern. I am far from believing in the conspiracy theory, but, in this case, I think that we are witnessing a well-rehearsed plan of the consistent discrediting of the Russian Federation and its chief. In such cases, the famed "qui bono"[sic] question has to be asked.[13] ”

Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesperson, dismissed the idea of Putin's involvement as "pure nonsense".[14] The involvement of Moscow was denied by SVR representative Sergei Ivanov who said:

“ From the logical viewpoint and from the 'Who benefits?' viewpoint, I can't see any reasons for the speculation actively being disseminated by the western press alleging this might be the long arms of the KGB or the FSB, There should definitely be a careful and objective investigation. I am sure that it will be conducted and Russia is willing to render any assistance.[15] ”

The main explanation put forward by the Russian Government appears to be that the deaths of Litvinenko and Politkovskaya were intended to embarrass President Putin. Federation Council of Russia Speaker Sergey Mironov said that "reports about Anna Politkovskaya and Litvinenko's deaths were released when Putin was meeting with EU leaders in Finland. I don't think the coincidence was accidental".[16] However, Mironov went on to say, "It would be premature to make any conclusions about Litvinenko's death. We must wait until the investigation produces specific results."[16]. Although a recent Russian counter-terrorism law gives the President the right to order such actions,[17] in fact the law in question refers only to "terrorists and their bases" abroad.

Before polonium-210 was identified as the poison, Vladimir Putin made the comment that

“ as far as I understand in the medical statement of British physicians, it doesn't say that this was a result of violence, this is not a violent death, so there is no ground for speculations of this kind.[18][19][20] ”

He also called Litvinenko's letter "a provocation".

Since few people had any doubts about this being a case of poisoning, some commentaries that discussed Putin's "curious" comment interpreted it as a give-away of his involvement.[21][22]. It has now been stated that the Russian government may consider using UK libel laws to silence journalists speculating about the Russian government's involvement.[23]

[edit] Other responses

Boris Kagarlitsky, a political dissident of the Soviet Union and of post-Soviet Russia, said the Russian authorities are unlikely to have orchestrated Litvinenko's death.[24]

"Personally, I don't think that a decision like this was made at a high level. For Russian authorities, Litvinenko's killing causes more harm than good. This is so obvious that I don't think Russian authorities or even secret-services heads are as incompetent as to not understand this," Kagarlitsky said. "Because this is happening under the eyes of the whole of Europe and to put it mildly, it doesn't improve the reputation of Russia and its current leaders."

He says individual agents in Russia's secret services were most likely to have poisoned Litvinenko with the aim of discrediting the Kremlin.

British novelist and historian Rupert Allason said he would be most surprised if the FSB had tried to kill Mr Litvinenko because it would fly in the face of 65 years of Soviet or Russian practice, as "[n]either the FSB nor the KGB has ever killed a defector on foreign soil and their predecessors, even under Stalin, did so only once in the case of Walter Krivitsky in Washington in 1941."[25] Despite some reports that a recent Russian counter-terrorism law gives the President the right to order such actions,[26] in fact the law in question refers only to "terrorists and their bases" abroad.

[edit] Berezovsky theory

It has been claimed the death of Litvinenko was connected to Boris Berezovsky.[27][28] Former FSB chief Nikolay Kovalev, for whom Litvinenko worked, said that the incident "looks like [the] hand of Berezovsky. I am sure that no kind of intelligence services participated."[29] This involvement of Berezovsky was alleged by numerous Russian television shows[30]. The involvement of Berezovsky was alleged by numerous Russian television shows. Kremlin supporters saw it as a conspiracy to smear Russia's reputation by engineering a spectacular murder.[31] They see Berezovsky's involvement as another campaign to ruin Putin's reputation internationally.

Berezovsky said in a telephone interview that he had "no doubt" that his friend had been poisoned on the "order from President Putin."[31]

Russian authorities have been unable to question him. The Foreign Ministry complained that Britain was obstructing its attempt to send prosecutors to London to interview more than 100 people, including Berezovsky.[32]

In November, 1998, Litvinenko himself alleged there was a plot to kill Berezovsky who was the deputy director of the Russia state security council at this time. Litvinenko was allegedly ordered to be the assassin but refused follow the order [30] [33] Traces of polonium-210 were found in an office of Berezovsky.[34]. However, these traces may be explained by the fact that Andrei Lugovoi had been there.[35].

[edit] British intelligence theory

Lugovoi has accused British intelligence agents of being behind the killing, and claimed MI6 had tried to recruit him to spy on Russia.[36]

[edit] Yukos theory

It has been suggested that Litvinenko was killed because of his research into the Russian Government's campaign against the management of the Russian oil company Yukos and its renationalisation. According to The Times, the police investigation is looking at Litvinenko's journey to Israel prior to his illness and death, where it is alleged that he gave information regarding Yukos to Leonid Nevzlin, the former deputy head of Yukos, who fled to Tel Aviv, including material relating to the deaths of former Yukos workers and information relating to the imprisonment of Mikhail Khodorkovsky.[37] It is believed that these documents have been handed over to the British investigators.[38][39]

Yuri Shvets a former KGB agent has contacted police in London and detectives have flown out to Washington to interview him. He told the Observer that Litvinenko claimed before his death that he had prepared a dossier on the Russian Government's relationship with Yukos.[40]

[edit] Ex-FSB members theory

According to the Guardian: "British officials say the perpetrators were probably former Russian security agents, or members of a criminal gang linked to them. They also say that only a "state" institution would have access to polonium-210. They insist there is no evidence of the involvement of the Russian government."[41]

"Scaramella showed Litvinenko a "hit-list" of people allegedly targeted for assassination by the Russian intelligence services and a shadowy group of KGB veterans called Dignity and Honour, which is run by a Colonel Velentin Velichko."[42] Scaramella was, however, doubtful as to the authenticity of the emails he had received: "The problem for me was these mails were so full of details, so specific that they didn't seem genuine."[43] Moreover, according to Scaramella, Litvinenko was also skeptical: "Alex laughed it off. He didn't have faith in the person who sent the message and said the whole thing was incredible. He said it was not realistic at all."[44]

The Russian intelligence services are highly bureaucratic and legalistic. "There isn't a great deal of room for personal initiative, everything has to be officially authorised and signed off. And this murder would have been a highly complex operation involving many people not one or two acting in isolation."[42]

[edit] 2008 election theory

A Kremlin insider Stanislav Belkovsky said the poisoning was an attempt by supporters of Dmitry Medvedev to force Putin to push aside the siloviks and appoint Medvedev his successor, which would be necessary to whitewash Putin's image after the murder of Litvinenko (that was claimed in 2006)[45]

[edit] Litvinenko-Shvets report

In an interview with the BBC broadcast on 16 December 2006, Yuri Shvets said that he and Litvinenko had compiled a report investigating the activities of senior Kremlin officials on behalf of a British company looking to invest "dozens of millions of dollars" in a project in Russia.[46] Shvets said the dossier was so incriminating about one senior Kremlin official, who was not named, it was likely that Litvinenko was murdered in revenge. He alleged that Litvinenko had shown the dossier to another business associate, Andrei Lugovoi, who had worked for the KGB and later the FSB. Shvets alleged that Lugovoi is still an FSB informant and he had passed the dossier to members of the spy service. Shvets says he was interviewed about his allegations by Scotland Yard detectives investigating Litvinenko's murder.

[edit] Bungling smugglers theory

According to a theory suggested by an anonymous self-publisher AJStrata, Litvinenko was part of a polonium smuggling ring.[47]

Dmitry Kovtun said in an interview to Spiegel TV that his radioactive trail was due to his earlier meetings with Litvinenko in London October 16-18, 2006. Kovtun was under investigation by German detectives for suspected polonium smuggling into Germany in October. According to BBC, Litvinenko's bus ticket he used to get to the November 1 meeting was not found radioactive.[48]

Joseph Farah claimed in his self-published media WND and G2 Bulletin that MI6 had learned about Al Qaida offering millions of dollars to anyone that could supply them with polonium. Farah wrote that GCHQ intercepted a phone call in Peshawar implying that Al Qaida were actively seeking polonium.[49]

Edward Jay Epstein, an American journalist, wrote in the New York Sun that Britain sent "embarrassingly thin substantiation" of its claims against Lugovoy. His hypothesis was that "Litvinenko came in contact with a Polonium-210 smuggling operation and was [..] exposed to it".[50]

Russia Today's editors wrote that Epstein said there was "no substantial evidence against Lugovoy".[51]

Mary Dejevsky wrote that her explanation of Litvinenko's death was the careless handling of radioactive material.[52] Dejevsky wrote that "no one in Britain," including Litvinenko's widow, has seen the documents Britain sent to Moscow in support of Lugovoy's extradition request.

[edit] Talik theory

Cathy Scott-Clark and Adrian Levy suggested in The Guardian that Litvinenko was murdered on the initiative of Alexander Talik, a close associate of Andrei Lugovoi with a background in the FSB. In a phone call which was tapped, Talik said: "Complete bullshit has been written about me." "Litvinenko has blamed me for organising arms shipments from the Ukraine." "I've asked for the address of this arsehole in London and I've given a dossier to Vitalich [a person whose identity is not further specified] who will take everything to Moscow." In November 2005, Litvinenko had given information to Ukrainian media according to which Talik participated in a failed plot. In January 2006, Litvinenko met Lugovoi for the first time.[53]

[edit] References

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  2. ^ Poisoned by radiation. The Sun (21 November 2006). Retrieved on 2006-11-24.
  3. ^ (Russian)Федеральный закон Российской Федерации от 6 марта 2006 г. N 35-ФЗ О противодействии терроризму. Government of Russia (20 November 2006). Retrieved on 2006-11-24.
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