Gafurov, Said

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Gafurov (Gafourov), Said Zakirovich (1967) — a Russian economist, orientalist and official, and also a lecturer in Higher schools, a Gorky Tatar (mishyar') by origin, Ph.D. (ec), Counselor of the Russian Federation. Author of a number of monographs and articles . A son of Professor Gafurov Zakerya Shagizanovich – colonel, professional revolutionary, creator of theory of construction of revolutionary armies in developing countries and Gafurova (Khusainova) Anisa Sofovna – a professional artist, secretary of the Moscow union of atists.

Gafurov is an acnowleged expert on privatisation and securities market development in post-socialist and developing countries, equity research, oriental studies and some special fields of philosophy.

Contents

[edit] Governmental service

Gafurov held a position of Director of Department of management of property of [Finance], [Credit], [Insurance] and [Foreign Trade] organizations of the Ministry of State Property of Russia. [1]

[edit] Equity Research

Gafurov’s most interesting works of on the theory of equity research and securities analysis are attempts (usually, unsuccessful) of application of the econometrics methodology to equity research. In addition, he tries to implement elements of common sense in the analysis of accounting and accounting reports. For example, Gafurov tries to prove that there is no any cognitive meaningfulness in the generally accepted P/E index: according to his opinion, E (earnings in this formula) is an index, "depending on the momentary state of affairs at an enterprise, from will of its accountant", in a humorous form repeating the maxima "if an enterprise has profits, it means, it has a bad accountant" and "in some other situations (for example, at the primary placing of shares) to the enterprise, vice versa, advantageously to show an income".

In regard to the generally accepted EBITDA index Gafurov specifies: "It is an artificial, complicated coefficient... International common accountant rules (GAAP and IAS) directly do not recommend to use EBITDA, as violating the basic principles of accounting. However, it is simply too widely widespread de-facto. A problem with EBITDA is that it mixes up common sense with conventions of accounting record-keeping. The essence of it is to show, the amount of money a company can in theory give up on maintenance of the debt, because depreciation is not real money flows, and a zero income creates in theory zero profit taxation also".".

From 1990ies he constantly asserted [source?], that he would create new, "theory of economic foresight". However, such a theory has not be not presented to enlightened public until now. There is an opinion, that Gafurov holds the "honour" of ground of doubtful theorem about absence of ergodity of securirties market (sometimes it is so named "Gafurov's theorem")[2].

Basic conclusion of the theorem is to prove that it is impossible to predict exactly time and depth of securities crisis on the basis of the accumulated experience (the mathematical apparatus of ergodity is used based on physics's uncertanity principle).

From this Gafurov draws the conclusion, that "while planning investment strategy one must minimize risks not by calculation of probability of prediction of crisis, not by accumulated sophisticated statistics from markets data, but rather based on another principle, on minimax basis, on the theory of portfolio structuring, theory of auction strategies".

At Russian securities market analysis the name of Gafurov is associated with application of conception of ergodity of equity research based on a number of articles on 1997-1996 equity crisis. They caused an active discussion and hard criticism. M.Boldyrev - one of main opponents of Gafurova marked that "finally, under general choir of retelling of textbooks on technical analysis we have some alternative look, appeared to the world, although it is not possible in everything to consent with it. However, it is desirable that in future defending of such approaches of talanted authors will be more balanced”."

In general as a result of the discussion with participation of the prominent Russian mathematicians (Laureate of the State award in statistics A.Gorchakov and others), there is a dominating view that there is no necessity of introduction of complicated, difficult to understand and out-of-date conception of ergodity but it is desirable to use more convinient and accepted in the Russian scientific environment conceptions of stationarity or concept of homogenity offered by Keynes.

Gafurov's Claims that only ergodity but not the stationaryness can be used in the case of Bayesian approach are evidently unbased and did not get any support. Moreover, in later articles Gafurov acknowledged that proofs of the theorems offered by him in the earlier articles contained errors, and formulations of consequences from theorems were changed by him. In particular, Gafurov replaced a concept "Non-ergodity of securities market", on "Non-ergodity of securities analysis".

Gafurov constantly in all works in an unjustified way mixes up problems of equity research and econometrics, without any grounds he applies econometrical methodological and philosophical limitations on equity research.

Gafurov, known for his the alarmist texts, underlined: "All the essense of my alarmism goes back to simple and banal idea which has no depth in it. Namely: When a market collapses in a true way - stop-losses will not rescue. And they will not rescue by one very simple reason - in this situation all (and brokers) will operate under principle: "Save yourself, if you can!" and the majority of brokers under principle: "you die today, and I will die tomorrow". It means sale orders will be carried out not in order of receipt, but in order of importance for a brocker. And (the heavens forbid!) to appear in such situation with a shoulder in which the automatic sale of the stopped up assets is foreseen in moment when a market price becomes less than cost of mortgage! Especially, when you can not get your broker by phone".

[edit] Neural networks and recognition of patterns

Gafurov is a categorical opponent of applications of neuron networks, naming them "recognition of patterns for lazy persons". He asserts in "War with robots or word against neuron networks", that the "specialized essence methods of discriminant analysis would always give better results, than universal muddle-headed neuron networks, designings not for analysis of reality, but rather cerebration of an expert, while initial position of level of knowledge of such an expert is designed as a level of knowledge of a new-born baby".

Actually Gafurov applied the often criticized by himself unconscientious method of polemic - he narrowed a concept of "Neural networks" in an unjustified way, criticized (fairly) all neural network paradigm for the lacks of early neuron networks, while the neural network paradigm considerably broadened and went out outside fair, but limited criticism of Gafurov. Besides, it is impermissible to criticize one science (Theory of neuron networks) from positions of other sciences (Discriminant analysis, Recognition of patterns, Multidimensional statistics, etc.

[edit] Political economy and Theory of Property

Gafurov is an author of a valuable by empiric material monography "Experience of comparative analysis of privatization and forming of market of corporate securities in developing and post-socialist countries in 1991—1996" and a few amusing, provocative works on a theory and practice of political economy of property.

[edit] Orientalism

Gafurob is an author of a work on philosophical ideas of Lybian leader Muammar Kaddafi «Philosophy of Muammar Kaddafi and tradition of European anarchism», translated to a few European, Arabic and even the African languages.

In addition, he is an author of a number of works on economy, privatization and development of economies, privatisation and securities markets of the Arabic and Asiatic countries.

Gafurov constantly conducts the idea of single human civilization, categorically rejecting any forms of the civilizations going through history. In a poetic form he matches quotation of Rudyard Kipling «Oh, East is East, and West is West, and never the twain shall meet» with quotation from Russian rock-poet A.Sapunov: "similarly - from pain cry there, similarly - they give birth in pain", which, in opinion of Gafurov, reflects much more precisely, what the East is. "... we are all people, - Gafurov asserts, -... we belong to one biological species, and our conduct is generally standardized and submits to the same laws… Higher nervous activity for us is unifed. We give birth to the alike babies".

Gafurov is the author of an interesting work on the problems of moslem sects: ismailsm, druzes, and alavites. He, in particular, supposed that all distinctions between flows in Islam (sunnizm and different directions of shiizm) were actually taken to the questions of implementation of law, but not dogmatic or personal reasons, because in an order to be a Moslem it is necessary and enough to make public acceptance of credo of faith, consisting only of two propositions: (1) that there is only one god (taukhid) and (2) that Mukhammed is one of his prophets.

He supposed that registration of separate flow is a problem of codification and creation of a separate, independent "mazkhab" a legal school and norms of laws, distinguishing this flow from other directions in Islam.

Gafurov is known for his defence of memory of Hakim bi Amri Allah - a assasinated Fatimid caliph who was later claimed insane by ismailites, christians and sunnites and deified by the druzes.

[edit] Works on philosophy and psychology

S. Z. Gafurov is an author of a number of works on the problems of philosophy and psychology. These works are secondary in relation to western sources and are not of great interest, although he applies on the Russian background a number of interesting materials on philosophy and psychology of securities market, and also a number of mathematical conceptions, not enough widespread among the Russian schoolars.

[edit] Epistemology

His epistemological views can be classified as extreme nominalism. He marked: «Asserts ages: in the real world abstractions do not exist, there are only real, concrete objects. Abstractions exist only in human languages and are convinient and comfortable for reduction of information at intercourse of people. However much such understanding of abstract terminov… lays on additional limitations on concepts. However such understanding of abstraction … lays additional limitations on concepts. For successful communication of people terms must possess a number of strict properties — absence of contradictions, reproducity. Different people must on the basis of the same information come to the same abstractions. This is about robastity, that to independence from sample».

On the whole, gnosiological looks of Gafurova it is marxist positivism.

[edit] Onthology

Existence" in Gafurov's views is nothing more and nothing less than, simply "possibility to give any object spatial and temporal co-ordinates".

[edit] Aesthetics

In area of aesthetics the views of Gafurov are snobbery, haughtinetic, mechanical. So, he refuses in any aesthetic value of modern popular music, defining music as «well-organized acoustic vibrations which can be compared between themselves without limitations». Hypocrisy of Gafurov is evident because he was in young days a jazz and rock-pianist, even composed pop-music. Gafurov categorically argues against the idea that classical music and popular music are "uncompareable things". Gafurov consistently conducts an idea, that « tastelessness» and «bad taste» — are principle different things. Bad taste by Gafurov — is "to love Haydn and not to love Brams". Tastelessness is «to listen Dima Bilan[3], and not the Big symphonic orchestra of Russia».

[edit] Ethics

Gafurov accepts only descriptive ethics, rather than normative. «… ethics and conduct of people submit to the same laws. Carefully considered, ethics — is just a function from expedience. Both ethics and expedience change from external conditions», — Gafurov asserts. Imperative ethics norms simply do not exist for him. Gafurov, writing on the question about the publication of compromising materials of sexual character by a Canadian homosexual Shevalier, leading according to his opinion to changing the prime minister of Great Britain, asserts: «cannibal ethics are similarly expedient, as ethics of a pederast or ethics of Britannic prime minister».

[edit] Political views

Russian nationalist right-winger groups put Gafurov in the list of "worst ennemies of the Russian people" [4].

[edit] Gafurov in the internet

[edit] References

  1. ^ Since then he believes that he understands these branches of economy. He is wrong.
  2. ^ http://ru.science.wikia.com/wiki/%D0%A2%D0%B5%D0%BE%D1%80%D0%B5%D0%BC%D0%B0_%D0%BE_%D0%BD%D0%B5%D1%8D%D1%80%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B8%D1%87%D0%BD%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%82%D0%B8_%D1%84%D0%BE%D0%BD%D0%B4%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BE_%D1%80%D1%8B%D0%BD%D0%BA%D0%B0
  3. ^ Popular Russian pop-singer. Winner of Eurovision-2008
  4. ^ http://64.233.183.104/search?q=cache:9Atm_1sLergJ:www.traditio.ru/index.php/%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%B8%D0%B4_%D0%97%D0%B0%D0%BA%D0%B8%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2%D0%B8%D1%87_%D0%93%D0%B0%D1%84%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2+%D0%A1%D0%B0%D0%B8%D0%B4+%D0%93%D0%B0%D1%84%D1%83%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B2+%D0%B7%D0%BB%D0%B5%D0%B9%D1%88%D0%B8%D0%B9+%D0%B2%D1%80%D0%B0%D0%B3+%D1%80%D1%83%D1%81%D1%81%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B3%D0%BE+%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B0&hl=ru&ct=clnk&cd=2&gl=ru
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