Talk:Causes of the Great Depression

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[edit] professional blindness ?

Practically every entry here has been writen by economists and economic graduates, and reflect their biased way of looking at things. Not one for example, can see that (real) interest rates rose from 0,5% in 1929 to 12,5% in 1930 and 1931, a nearly 2400% increase, turning a recession into a banking crisis and a repression. I have had this analysis taken out some 15 times, probably by some economists that do not want this huge mistake to become public. So lets have some sections for Financial Analysits, Sociologists, Realists, state their convictions than have this Economist monopoly of this debate. Wikipedia should be a pluralist view of world events. —The preceding unsigned comment was added by 201.26.121.140 (talk) 11:37, August 22, 2007 (UTC)

[edit] vandalism?

There is an inexplicable reference to American Idol in the article. Unfortunately I don't know the subject well enough to know what should be in its place in the sentence, and I can't find the change in the History.

[edit] [Unspecified Title]

OK, I have made a cut at improving this post. I know it needs work. The contents table no longer matches and the formatting needs help.

However the content added is much more accurate and a better reflection of the mainstreams of thought. I think that alot of the stuff in the last half is spurious and should be deleted.

A list of changes made:

Inequality theory moved to alternate explanations section – could be grouped with Marxists, but it certainly doesn’t belong in orthodox section

Deleted lack of diversification theory. I don’t know anyone who takes this theory seriously. The economy is always changing, industries grow and die constantly. There is nothing about this theory that couldn’t apply to many other times in history when we didn’t have a Depression

The Gold standard theory was mostly wrong and was reworked into a different part of the article

The section on the credit structure was deleted. This is not a real explanation. First of all, farmers have been deeply in debt at many other times and it is not a causal factor. More importantly, the Depression was a world wide phenomenon and nothing in this explanation could account for that.

The Austrian section of the article was re written. It was a very poor rendition of what Austrian economists have to say about the matter.

Most of the political section was deleted, because – it is US centric; it is covered elsewhere; or it was not accurate

American recession of 1937 and recovery section was deleted. This doesn’t belong in a “Causes of the Depression” section

Reworked explanations section – Keynes, monetarism, gold standard


The cycle theories section should be cut – they are not serious explanations.

I think the New Deal section should go too, but I didn’t cut it.

sojournerpaul 8/26/2006

Previous notes: 8/24/2006 There are lots of problems with this page. Theories are grouped badly and some are inadequately explained. The priority also has a major point of view problem. You could organize the page 2 ways as I see it. Historically - where you start with the prevailing theories at the time, move into Keynesianism, which dominated till the 70's, then into monetarism, which prevailed as conventional wisdom till the last decade or two where you have to give precedence to the theories of Eichengreen and Bernanke.

The other way would be to start with the current conventional wisdom and then go into alternate explanations ranked by general acceptance or historical influence. Current conventional wisdom would be best captured by Bernanke's Depression book.

If you are going for a neutral point of view, you have to give precedence to the most widely acclaimed depression theorist who is now Fed Chairman. To organize this article as it is now set up is highly partial to views that are beyond the pale and make mockery of the NPOV.

I will try to help if I have time. sojournerpaul 8/24/2006



This page needs

1. Organization, many theories are presented without context - the monetarist, credit and structural models are not as far apart as all that - all center on different IS-LM models, and argue different effects were the important disequilibria.

2.Coverage of a wider range of theories, the lack of a unified orthodox theory has given rise to many other theories, including some that have an impact on mainstream economics, such as Schumpter.

3. Coverage of contemporary theories - after all, we need to understand what they though they were doing.

Stirling Newberry 12:04, 15 Apr 2005 (UTC)


From Edward G. Nilges uid spinoza1111 email spinoza1111@yahoo.com 4-20-2005

This page most needed someone to take a crack at the Marxist (both paleo and neo) analysis of depressions, so I did.


From Edward G. Nilges uid spinoza1111 email spinoza1111@yahoo.com 4-21-2005

I hope you mean Joseph Schumpeter, the "creative destruction" man.

[edit] Oops

I added a fairly detailed summary of the Austrian Theory of Business Cycle, but I just noticed that there was already a small section dedicated to "Liberal Capitalist Critiques of Democracy". But I don't think "Ideological Theories" is a good category. Instead, the theories should probably be divided into different schools, such as the ones listed in the Macroeconomics article: Austrian economics, Keynesian economics, Monetarism, New classical economics, New Keynesian economics, Supply side economics and Welfare economics. I'll take a crack at reorganizing the information.--Blah99 21:56, 6 September 2005 (UTC)

[edit] Futurism?

I find something quite surprising. The description of the "excess surpluses" & the deflation fx on agriculture is strikingly like what Jack London (Y, Call of the Wild) describes as causitives in his 1912 SF novel The Iron Heel.... Trekphiler 01:13, 9 December 2005 (UTC)

[edit] References

Minor question... what's the point in dividing external sources into "World" and "USA"? I seriously propose removing this division. 199.111.230.195 03:02, 26 February 2006 (UTC)

Because the event is very distinctive in 2 seperate categories, world and US. Both are interlinked like you propose, however the effects are vastly different in terms of how it shaped each's economies afterwards and so on. To clump the links would be bad for those wishing to do research on the individual categories. In fact, one could be so inclined as to make 2 entirely different wikis based on each entity. --ReZips 04:41, 27 March 2006 (UTC)

[edit] The Way The World Works

All theories described in the article are nice but rather difficult to follow. I recommend reading The Way The World Works by Jude Wanniski, mainly chapter 7, which nicely describes and explains the market crash in 1929 and the preceeding years.

Wanniski writes well but has not done much research. Economists and historians do not take him seriously. He has a contradiictory argument to the effect that businessmen wanted a higher tariff and when they thought they might get it panicked and sent the stock market crashing. Rjensen 22:12, 17 May 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Austrian Economic Theory Section

I've read Murray Rothbard's book "America's Great Depression" and I would like to add a section on Austrian Economic Theory's explanation of The Great Depression. It will take a bit of time to put the information in a cogent and succinct form and welcome any feedback.

Please incorporate it into the section that already exists on Austrian Economic Theory/Caused by too much government Rjensen 15:57, 4 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Wiki does not make choices

The job of Wiki is not to tell what caused the depression, it is to tell what economists and policy makers thought. Some ideas may be out of fashion in 2006 (like underconsumption and credit) but they have to be covered because they significantly influenced policy makers. Likewise the discussion of the Causes is 50% political and the political models (left and right) have to be presented if people are to understand proposed solutions like the New Deal. Rjensen 18:11, 26 August 2006 (UTC)


[edit] This page is complete garbage

This page has enough factual inaccuracies to flunk an entire history class at once. The "New Dealers" section is absolutely incorrect, there is significant over-coverage of Austrianism, lies of omission (my favorite one being the new dealers wanting to raise taxes - Hoover and the Republicans wanted to "tax everybody for everything" to rebalance the budget...) And it wasn't just the left that blamed capitalism, future Republican nominee for President Alf Landon blamed "the profit motive" and hoped for sweeping dictatorial powers to be used to solve the economic crisis.

The misstatement of FDR's views is particularly vile. Roosevelt and the New Dealers did not blame business, they blamed, in varying orders: 1. The break down of trade and confidence ("We have nothing to fear but fear itself" people, there is a reason why the quote is famous) 2. The failure of old methods of dealing with problems. 3. The maldistribution of buying power, which led to insufficient demand for manufactured goods. 4. The lack of a social safety net. 5. "Cut throat Competition" leading to downward spiralling of wages - not business in general, but a few bad apples in business. 6. Lack of regulation to protect shareholders (See the book written by two New Dealers The Modern Corporation and Private Property - what we would now call the "actor problem" 7. Over production of agricultural goods.

Lies, half truths, uncited (because uncitable) oversimplifications... there is simply not a single section of this page which is not far, far, far, far below the quality required of wikipedia. The editors here should be ashamed of themselves for producing a biased, inaccurate and poorly worked out article which from one side to the other reads like a 5th grader's understanding of the subject in question.

It needs to be rolled back to some much previous version and reworked from there, this version is just about hopeless. Stirling Newberry 19:00, 26 August 2006 (UTC)

I don't know where you're getting your history from, but FDR started attacking businessmen on day one beginning with his inauguration address: "Primarily this is because rulers of the exchange of mankind's goods have failed through their own stubbornness and their own incompetence, have admitted their failure, and have abdicated. Practices of the unscrupulous money changers stand indicted in the court of public opinion, rejected by the hearts and minds of men. True they have tried, but their efforts have been cast in the pattern of an outworn tradition. Faced by failure of credit they have proposed only the lending of more money. Stripped of the lure of profit by which to induce our people to follow their false leadership, they have resorted to exhortations, pleading tearfully for restored confidence. They know only the rules of a generation of self-seekers. They have no vision, and when there is no vision the people perish. The money changers have fled from their high seats in the temple of our civilization. We may now restore that temple to the ancient truths. The measure of the restoration lies in the extent to which we apply social values more noble than mere monetary profit." Roosevelt was a virulent anti-capitalist who tried to convert the US into a planned economy. He blamed the Depression on businessmen and their quest for profits. He fostered an anti-business climate that created further fear of investment. He even attacked the very self-interest foundation on which capitalism is based. He was truly an idiot. C-Liberal 19:58, 26 August 2006 (UTC)
Ignore Stirling, he has this desire to push a completely revisionist view on history. He forgets that his idols do indeed make mistakes. Obviously, the concept of NPOV constantly escapes him - just look at his talk page archives. T Turner 16:12, 27 August 2006 (UTC)

[edit] Problems remain

This page still does have lots of problems. I stand by my efforts on the mainstream theories - I did my Masters thesis on theories of the depression and it was reviewed by teachers in the field. The underconsumption section and the politcal section got added back in. Neither, I think are appropriate. the underconsumption theory is not a mainstream theory. Just because two guys wrote about it doesn't mean it was ever generally accepted. Therefore, it should be moved to the alternate theories section, which I have done.

I wont delete the political section, but some of the complaints are right -it is riddled with inaccuracies and has a US focus.It also does not really address CAUSES of the Depression. I wont delete it till there is some more discussion. Sojourner paul 8/27/2006

all inaccuracies should be identified and can be fixed. The underconsuption theory was indeed a mainstream interpretation at the time. It decisively affected policy. That makes it important to know about. It continues to figure in history books. And please don't use words like "garbage"--your professors would be upset at the crude language. Rjensen 03:35, 28 August 2006 (UTC)

Nonsense. Mainstream at the time were Fisher, Robbins, Pigou. After the Depression Keynes till the 70's, then monetarism. Like you purport to say, it is not about what you think, but about what the most repected economists att he time thought. "Underconsumption theory," as you had it written, was not mainstream. I am not sure how you would think it was... THe attempt to elevate it violates the NPOV framework of this site. Sojourner paul 8/29/2006

This article, as pointed out above, does need more coverage from an international perspective, including I would think both industrialized countries and the large "third world" countries of the time - namely India and China. At this point, Japan is fairly successful so it would be part of the "industrialized" perspective. Additionally, the theory that advances in technology caused a significant displacement of labor needs to be included as well. It has been a widely taught theory over the years. Stevenmitchell 02:42, 1 September 2006 (UTC)

who was "mainstream" at the time--I suggest Catchings and Foster, Means, and many others. Dorfman covers this very thoroughly. It's essential to avoid the "whiggish" interpretation that looks at precursors of contemporary theory, and ignores the forgotten economists whose ideas, Keynees famously pointed out, were actually determinative of policy decisions. Rjensen 04:49, 1 September 2006 (UTC)

Just because i don't think that these others were mainstream, doesn't mean I think they were wrong. My favorite explanations are also not mainstream. But when i look for mainstream, I look for those who constituted the the most influential opinions of the time. When you look to see who Keynes debated with, and who influenced the central banks, it was not those from the overconsumption perspective. For proof, I suggest reading books that contain Keynes' debates with economists at the time. Also, Delong's paper De Long, Bradford Liquidation” Cycles and the Great Depression (1991);Meltzer, Allan H. A History of the Federal Reserve, Volume 1: 1913-1951 (2004). These books, and others, tell me that the underconsumtion theory was not a widely held belief at the time. Worth noting, yes, but not "mainstream." Afterwards, these may have, as you say, influenced Keynes, who became mainstream after the Depression. Sojourner paul 9/1/2006

Also, too many explanations may explain why the Depression happened in one country, but have no conceivable explanation for why it spanned most of the Western World. Sojourner paul 9/1/2006

[edit] WORDS?

I think you need to make the words easier for kids to read && Clarify things so that people actually KNOW what you are talking about.

I think u need to make the words a little more understandable for kids. I use wikipedia for assignments and projects all the time but PLEASE MAKE IT EASIER!!! {{unsigned|67.49.60

Hmmm? My one great question that has always remained with me is just this why is it that the generation that grew up from the 1890s on to after world war 2 and esspecially the so called children of the great depression wil not talk about it at all it is like some kind of social plauge or something is prohibting them ever talking about what happened to them having to grow up during that time period as the generations after them have and had no prtoblems talking about growing up in the 1950's and 1960's when the econmy grew in great leaps and bounds and there was to much easy money but why will the peoples of my own parents generation not tlak about this time period it is really stupid that they are so hung up about this i have studied that time period and although ti was indeed a very bad time i am yet convined it was not so horrific as it is made out to today looking back at it from now anyway more later on this but any of you wondering abou this like i am!

Jay!

I agree with the first post. It's way too hard to understand, especially for those of us who are doing reports and need references. This website is a comfort to us all, and come on, is it not here to help those of us who need it? While I am not suggesting you put every other word in slang, some of the larger sentences could be reduced and some of the larger words substituted for smaller, more coherent that my fellow youths and I can understand. Please do something! I would, myself, but I honestly just don't have the time, what with homework and projects that I use this website for. I speak for myself and others my age when I say thank you to all who make an effort towards this request. ~LadyFroggie