Asian disease

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The "Asian Disease" problem is one of Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman earliest laboratory experiments, which demonstrates framing effects in economics and was key to their development of prospect theory, a realistic alternative to John von Neumann's expected utility.

Subjects were given one of two problems (Problem 1 or 2) and in each case asked to choose between Program A or Program B.

Problem 1: Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. There are two alternative programs. If Program A is adopted, 200 people will be saved. If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that all 600 people will be saved and a two-thirds probability that no people will be saved.

Which do you prefer, Program A or Program B?

Problem 2: Imagine that the U.S. is preparing for the outbreak of an unusual Asian disease, which is expected to kill 600 people. There are two alternative programs. If Program A is adopted, 400 people will die. If Program B is adopted, there is a one-third probability that nobody will die and a two-thirds probability that 600 people will die.

Which do you prefer, Program A or Program B?

This is known as a framing issue. It's easy to see that both problems are identical in terms of real results, but when it was framed as Problem 1, 72% preferred Program A, while when it was framed as Problem 2 only 22% preferred Program A.